Global Models Thread for 90L

[KFDM Meteorologist]

When's the next 18z run 2nite?

18Z will be Sunday afternoon. 0Z will be out tonight around 10 or so tonight.

[Brent]

As an aside, the resolution of the GFS degrades as the forecast time increases. So 996 may very well be a significant hurricane

Yeah, I'm not too focused on the intensity. I believe all the global models are like that.

[Wx_Warrior]

That thing is due west....Goodness

[windstorm99]

162hrs-GFS

[Extremeweatherguy]

162 hrs (Next Saturday morning)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

Still in the caribbean and heading west.

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif

Ridge holding steady to the north.

[wzrgirl1]

As an aside, the resolution of the GFS degrades as the forecast time increases. So 996 may very well be a significant hurricane

Yeah, I'm not too focused on the intensity. I believe all the global models are like that.

right...always hard to get the intensity right....it's the synoptics

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If this run were to be right you better close the beach and call the mayor. gom HERE IT COMES!!

[MiamiensisWx]

This run is the opposite of the 12Z solution. It indicates a faster forward motion (and slower development) for 90L. This run presents the same East Coast trough, but it flattens the amplification flow much faster, thus pulling the trough away from the area at a quicker pace. Additionally, it builds a stronger 500 mbar ridge over the Southeast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_162l.gif

[El Nino]

162 hrs (Next Saturday morning)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

Still in the caribbean and heading west.

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif

Ridge holding steady to the north.

Watch out Jamaica ! Really compact and well organised. A cat2 at this time maybe.

[SouthFloridawx]

This run is the opposite of the 12Z solution. It indicates a faster forward motion (and slower development) for 90L. This run presents the same East Coast trough, but it flattens the amplification flow much faster, thus pulling the trough away from the area at a quicker pace. Additionally, it builds a stronger 500 mbar ridge over the Southeast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_162l.gif

According to gfs, the system will stay under the ridge for a good portion of the way. Just great...

[Brent]

Gulf of Mexico bound!

[Extremeweatherguy]

174 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Remember again this is the 18Z run. 0Z later this evening will have something completely different.

[Brent]

A bunch of it came out at once, up to 216 and just north of Western Cuba

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

Before that it goes near Jamaica at 192 hours.

[miamicanes177]

Remember again this is the 18Z run. 0Z later this evening will have something completely different.

We're getting closer so outrageous swings will be less and less likely to occur.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep...Worst that Chief Brody telling Mayor Larry Vaughn to close Amityville Beach because of a shark!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Notice the weakness at 500 from Central LA. to Pensacola.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Remember again this is the 18Z run. 0Z later this evening will have something completely different.

yeah, I wouldn't get too worried unless it begins to show a consistant track for at least 4-8 runs or is within a 120-144 timeframe. The only people that should be a bit "concerned" ATM are those in the leewards. They are only 4-6 days out from a potential impact of some sort.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Need 500 at 216 HRS. It's coming in slow where i am.

[windstorm99]

Need 500 at 216 HRS. It's coming in slow where i am.

Me to.