18Z will be Sunday afternoon. 0Z will be out tonight around 10 or so tonight.Wx_Warrior wrote:When's the next 18z run 2nite?
Global Models Thread for 90L
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Re: Models Thread for 90L
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Derek Ortt wrote:As an aside, the resolution of the GFS degrades as the forecast time increases. So 996 may very well be a significant hurricane
Yeah, I'm not too focused on the intensity. I believe all the global models are like that.
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162 hrs (Next Saturday morning)...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif
Still in the caribbean and heading west.
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif
Ridge holding steady to the north.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif
Still in the caribbean and heading west.
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif
Ridge holding steady to the north.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:
Brent wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:As an aside, the resolution of the GFS degrades as the forecast time increases. So 996 may very well be a significant hurricane
Yeah, I'm not too focused on the intensity. I believe all the global models are like that.
right...always hard to get the intensity right....it's the synoptics
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: Models Thread for 90L
This run is the opposite of the 12Z solution. It indicates a faster forward motion (and slower development) for 90L. This run presents the same East Coast trough, but it flattens the amplification flow much faster, thus pulling the trough away from the area at a quicker pace. Additionally, it builds a stronger 500 mbar ridge over the Southeast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_162l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_162l.gif
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:162 hrs (Next Saturday morning)...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif
Still in the caribbean and heading west.
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif
Ridge holding steady to the north.
Watch out Jamaica ! Really compact and well organised. A cat2 at this time maybe.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L
MiamiensisWx wrote:This run is the opposite of the 12Z solution. It indicates a faster forward motion (and slower development) for 90L. This run presents the same East Coast trough, but it flattens the amplification flow much faster, thus pulling the trough away from the area at a quicker pace. Additionally, it builds a stronger 500 mbar ridge over the Southeast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_162l.gif
According to gfs, the system will stay under the ridge for a good portion of the way. Just great...
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174 hrs...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- KFDM Meteorologist
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Re: Models Thread for 90L
Remember again this is the 18Z run. 0Z later this evening will have something completely different.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L
A bunch of it came out at once, up to 216 and just north of Western Cuba
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
Before that it goes near Jamaica at 192 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
Before that it goes near Jamaica at 192 hours.
Last edited by Brent on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L
We're getting closer so outrageous swings will be less and less likely to occur.KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Remember again this is the 18Z run. 0Z later this evening will have something completely different.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L
Yep...Worst that Chief Brody telling Mayor Larry Vaughn to close Amityville Beach because of a shark!


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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Models Thread for 90L
yeah, I wouldn't get too worried unless it begins to show a consistant track for at least 4-8 runs or is within a 120-144 timeframe. The only people that should be a bit "concerned" ATM are those in the leewards. They are only 4-6 days out from a potential impact of some sort.KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Remember again this is the 18Z run. 0Z later this evening will have something completely different.
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