Global Models Thread for 90L

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Extremeweatherguy
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#441 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:03 pm

Rock, I would agree with you if the ridge really was going to hold for 12 days, but it isn't. The models break the ridge down for a few days next week and then rebuild it in time for 90L...

current 500mb pattern = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif (ridge breaks down a bit near east coast)

96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif (weakness near east coast)

144 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif (ridge builds back)

...So this is not really 12 days straight. Instead it is 3 days, followed by a 2 day break, followed by 7 more days of the ridge built in. Sounds very possible to me, but we will just have to wait and see what happens. ATM, I think this system could eventually end up going anywhere. The only people that need to be concerned right now are those in the Leewards (who are only 5-6 days out from a potential impact).
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#442 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:03 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:What time does 0Z come out?


11:30 PM
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Re:

#443 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:09 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Rock, I would agree with you if the ridge really was going to hold for 12 days, but it isn't. The models break the ridge down for a few days next week and then rebuild it in time for 90L...

current 500mb pattern = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif (ridge breaks down a bit near east coast)

96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif (weakness near east coast)

144 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif (ridge builds back)

...So this is not really 12 days straight. Instead it is 3 days, followed by a 2 day break, followed by 7 more days of the ridge built in. Sounds very possible to me, but we will just have to wait and see what happens. ATM, I think this system could eventually end up going anywhere. The only people that need to be concerned right now are those in the Leewards (who are only 5-6 days out from a potential impact).



yep...so is forecasted.....I was trying to positive... :lol:
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#444 Postby cajungal » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:25 pm

I hate to see any storm to get in the Gulf. The temp hit 105 degrees today in Thibodaux. Yes, that is right folks, 105, the actual temp NOT the heat index. I went to Grand Isle and the water was like getting into a hot tub. Too hot to even swim in!
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#445 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:35 pm

If the current heat trend continues around our area in Louisiana we could see record-breaking SST's off the coast...

Certainly not a favorable scenario when a hurricane is forecasted to be in your area with so little certainty.

Gulf SST's could easily reach Katrina like heights by the week coming all along the Gulf and even along the East Coast. Certainly this is something not to be taken lightly.

I hope our future storm will take the track across some of those mountainous Caribbean islands and disrupt it a bit.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#446 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:37 pm

cajungal wrote:I hate to see any storm to get in the Gulf. The temp hit 105 degrees today in Thibodaux. Yes, that is right folks, 105, the actual temp NOT the heat index. I went to Grand Isle and the water was like getting into a hot tub. Too hot to even swim in!


Grande Isle is too far a drive from Thibodaux to go to the beach. IMHO.


I used to have to drive to Fourchon, through Gray and Thibodaux, before they turned US 90 into a big 4 lane interstate style highway. Oooh, that is a long drive.

Are Golden Meadow and Galliano still speed traps?
Last edited by Ed Mahmoud on Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#447 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:39 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:If the current heat trend continues around our area in Louisiana we could see record-breaking SST's off the coast...

Certainly not a favorable scenario when a hurricane is forecasted to be in your area with so little certainty.

Gulf SST's could easily reach Katrina like heights by the week coming all along the Gulf and even along the East Coast. Certainly this is something not to be taken lightly.

I hope our future storm will take the track across some of those mountainous Caribbean islands and disrupt it a bit.



SSTs are pushing 26º to South Jersey. Even the databuoy off Islip the other day was 24º

Still plenty of time for this to curve up North and stay out of the Gulf, and with SSTs that warm, a big storm would be winding down a lot slower than usual when it got to the latitude of NY/NE
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Re: Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS will start rolling at 11:30 PM

#448 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:46 pm

Not up on Experimental FSU site, but text output for GFDL on 90L keeps it going all 126 hours (GFDL often loses weak disturbances that don't want to develop right away) and tends a W to WNW direction,

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

126 15.4 53.0 277./12.0
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Re: Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS will start rolling at 11:30 PM

#449 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:47 pm

Sat Aug 11 19:34:32 EDT 2007
WHXX04 KWBC 112325

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L



INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 11



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 11.3 20.5 270./14.9

6 11.2 21.1 266./ 5.8

12 11.6 22.2 288./11.9

18 11.8 23.6 276./13.6

24 11.8 25.6 272./18.9

30 11.6 27.4 261./18.5

36 11.4 28.5 261./10.8

42 11.8 29.8 288./13.1

48 12.0 31.2 277./13.5

54 12.3 32.6 283./14.5

60 12.8 34.2 286./16.1

66 13.0 36.0 277./18.1

72 13.4 37.8 282./17.8

78 13.5 39.7 274./17.8

84 13.7 41.4 277./17.1

90 14.0 43.2 280./17.7

96 14.3 45.1 279./18.7

102 14.6 46.8 279./16.4

108 14.9 48.5 280./17.1

114 15.1 50.1 277./15.7

120 15.2 51.7 274./15.4

126 15.4 53.0 277./12.0


18z GFDL
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#450 Postby cajungal » Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:49 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
cajungal wrote:I hate to see any storm to get in the Gulf. The temp hit 105 degrees today in Thibodaux. Yes, that is right folks, 105, the actual temp NOT the heat index. I went to Grand Isle and the water was like getting into a hot tub. Too hot to even swim in!


Grande Isle is too far a drive from Thibodaux to go to the beach. IMHO.


I used to have to drive to Fourchon, through Gray and Thibodaux, before they turned US 90 into a big 4 lane interstate style highway. Oooh, that is a long drive.

Are Golden Meadow and Galliano still speed traps?


Well, Grand Isle is closest beach we have. There is just marsh below Houma, not a beach. And you don't have to drive through all those towns. I live in Schriever which is just south of Thibodaux and we find going through Houma then taking Bourg-Larose hwy is quicker. But, this is now getting off topic, so back to our invest!
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Re: Models Thread for 90L=18z GFDL Posted

#451 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:04 pm

Image
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#452 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:29 pm

Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#453 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:30 pm

I'm not sure if this has been posted but I don't like the looks of the 12z ECMWF which I place alot of stock in in terms of consistency as it usually doesn't waver to an extreme like others

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081112!!/
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#454 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:33 pm

GFDL calls for a hurricane at 40W. I think it's also moving towards the northern Caribbean. Another Georges?
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#455 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:35 pm

HRWF has a major hurricane near the Carib in 5 days
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Re:

#456 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:37 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:HRWF has a major hurricane near the Carib in 5 days



yes posted the images :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
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Re:

#457 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:37 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:HRWF has a major hurricane near the Carib in 5 days


Derek you think if 90L is major hurricane near the caribbean as the HRWF is calling for might this up the risk for florida or no?Adrian
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#458 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:40 pm

why are we worrying about 10 day forecasts now? The margin of error is more than 1000 miles.

The Carib is about 5 days away, so that can be forecast... the mainland... another story
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Re:

#459 Postby perk » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:46 pm

[quote="KFDM Meteorologist"]500 on the 23rd.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_288l.gif





:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re:

#460 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:59 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:why are we worrying about 10 day forecasts now? The margin of error is more than 1000 miles.

The Carib is about 5 days away, so that can be forecast... the mainland... another story


Just a question Derek...
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