Global Models Thread for 90L
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Rock, I would agree with you if the ridge really was going to hold for 12 days, but it isn't. The models break the ridge down for a few days next week and then rebuild it in time for 90L...
current 500mb pattern = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif (ridge breaks down a bit near east coast)
96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif (weakness near east coast)
144 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif (ridge builds back)
...So this is not really 12 days straight. Instead it is 3 days, followed by a 2 day break, followed by 7 more days of the ridge built in. Sounds very possible to me, but we will just have to wait and see what happens. ATM, I think this system could eventually end up going anywhere. The only people that need to be concerned right now are those in the Leewards (who are only 5-6 days out from a potential impact).
current 500mb pattern = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif (ridge breaks down a bit near east coast)
96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif (weakness near east coast)
144 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif (ridge builds back)
...So this is not really 12 days straight. Instead it is 3 days, followed by a 2 day break, followed by 7 more days of the ridge built in. Sounds very possible to me, but we will just have to wait and see what happens. ATM, I think this system could eventually end up going anywhere. The only people that need to be concerned right now are those in the Leewards (who are only 5-6 days out from a potential impact).
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Rock, I would agree with you if the ridge really was going to hold for 12 days, but it isn't. The models break the ridge down for a few days next week and then rebuild it in time for 90L...
current 500mb pattern = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif (ridge breaks down a bit near east coast)
96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif (weakness near east coast)
144 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif (ridge builds back)
...So this is not really 12 days straight. Instead it is 3 days, followed by a 2 day break, followed by 7 more days of the ridge built in. Sounds very possible to me, but we will just have to wait and see what happens. ATM, I think this system could eventually end up going anywhere. The only people that need to be concerned right now are those in the Leewards (who are only 5-6 days out from a potential impact).
yep...so is forecasted.....I was trying to positive...

0 likes
- cajungal
- Category 5
- Posts: 2330
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
- Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)
Re: Models Thread for 90L
I hate to see any storm to get in the Gulf. The temp hit 105 degrees today in Thibodaux. Yes, that is right folks, 105, the actual temp NOT the heat index. I went to Grand Isle and the water was like getting into a hot tub. Too hot to even swim in!
0 likes
If the current heat trend continues around our area in Louisiana we could see record-breaking SST's off the coast...
Certainly not a favorable scenario when a hurricane is forecasted to be in your area with so little certainty.
Gulf SST's could easily reach Katrina like heights by the week coming all along the Gulf and even along the East Coast. Certainly this is something not to be taken lightly.
I hope our future storm will take the track across some of those mountainous Caribbean islands and disrupt it a bit.
Certainly not a favorable scenario when a hurricane is forecasted to be in your area with so little certainty.
Gulf SST's could easily reach Katrina like heights by the week coming all along the Gulf and even along the East Coast. Certainly this is something not to be taken lightly.
I hope our future storm will take the track across some of those mountainous Caribbean islands and disrupt it a bit.
0 likes
Re: Models Thread for 90L
cajungal wrote:I hate to see any storm to get in the Gulf. The temp hit 105 degrees today in Thibodaux. Yes, that is right folks, 105, the actual temp NOT the heat index. I went to Grand Isle and the water was like getting into a hot tub. Too hot to even swim in!
Grande Isle is too far a drive from Thibodaux to go to the beach. IMHO.
I used to have to drive to Fourchon, through Gray and Thibodaux, before they turned US 90 into a big 4 lane interstate style highway. Oooh, that is a long drive.
Are Golden Meadow and Galliano still speed traps?
Last edited by Ed Mahmoud on Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:If the current heat trend continues around our area in Louisiana we could see record-breaking SST's off the coast...
Certainly not a favorable scenario when a hurricane is forecasted to be in your area with so little certainty.
Gulf SST's could easily reach Katrina like heights by the week coming all along the Gulf and even along the East Coast. Certainly this is something not to be taken lightly.
I hope our future storm will take the track across some of those mountainous Caribbean islands and disrupt it a bit.
SSTs are pushing 26º to South Jersey. Even the databuoy off Islip the other day was 24º
Still plenty of time for this to curve up North and stay out of the Gulf, and with SSTs that warm, a big storm would be winding down a lot slower than usual when it got to the latitude of NY/NE
0 likes
Re: Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS will start rolling at 11:30 PM
Not up on Experimental FSU site, but text output for GFDL on 90L keeps it going all 126 hours (GFDL often loses weak disturbances that don't want to develop right away) and tends a W to WNW direction,
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
126 15.4 53.0 277./12.0
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
126 15.4 53.0 277./12.0
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145881
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS will start rolling at 11:30 PM
Sat Aug 11 19:34:32 EDT 2007
WHXX04 KWBC 112325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 11
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 11.3 20.5 270./14.9
6 11.2 21.1 266./ 5.8
12 11.6 22.2 288./11.9
18 11.8 23.6 276./13.6
24 11.8 25.6 272./18.9
30 11.6 27.4 261./18.5
36 11.4 28.5 261./10.8
42 11.8 29.8 288./13.1
48 12.0 31.2 277./13.5
54 12.3 32.6 283./14.5
60 12.8 34.2 286./16.1
66 13.0 36.0 277./18.1
72 13.4 37.8 282./17.8
78 13.5 39.7 274./17.8
84 13.7 41.4 277./17.1
90 14.0 43.2 280./17.7
96 14.3 45.1 279./18.7
102 14.6 46.8 279./16.4
108 14.9 48.5 280./17.1
114 15.1 50.1 277./15.7
120 15.2 51.7 274./15.4
126 15.4 53.0 277./12.0
18z GFDL
WHXX04 KWBC 112325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 11
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 11.3 20.5 270./14.9
6 11.2 21.1 266./ 5.8
12 11.6 22.2 288./11.9
18 11.8 23.6 276./13.6
24 11.8 25.6 272./18.9
30 11.6 27.4 261./18.5
36 11.4 28.5 261./10.8
42 11.8 29.8 288./13.1
48 12.0 31.2 277./13.5
54 12.3 32.6 283./14.5
60 12.8 34.2 286./16.1
66 13.0 36.0 277./18.1
72 13.4 37.8 282./17.8
78 13.5 39.7 274./17.8
84 13.7 41.4 277./17.1
90 14.0 43.2 280./17.7
96 14.3 45.1 279./18.7
102 14.6 46.8 279./16.4
108 14.9 48.5 280./17.1
114 15.1 50.1 277./15.7
120 15.2 51.7 274./15.4
126 15.4 53.0 277./12.0
18z GFDL
0 likes
- cajungal
- Category 5
- Posts: 2330
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
- Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)
Re: Models Thread for 90L
Ed Mahmoud wrote:cajungal wrote:I hate to see any storm to get in the Gulf. The temp hit 105 degrees today in Thibodaux. Yes, that is right folks, 105, the actual temp NOT the heat index. I went to Grand Isle and the water was like getting into a hot tub. Too hot to even swim in!
Grande Isle is too far a drive from Thibodaux to go to the beach. IMHO.
I used to have to drive to Fourchon, through Gray and Thibodaux, before they turned US 90 into a big 4 lane interstate style highway. Oooh, that is a long drive.
Are Golden Meadow and Galliano still speed traps?
Well, Grand Isle is closest beach we have. There is just marsh below Houma, not a beach. And you don't have to drive through all those towns. I live in Schriever which is just south of Thibodaux and we find going through Houma then taking Bourg-Larose hwy is quicker. But, this is now getting off topic, so back to our invest!
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
I'm not sure if this has been posted but I don't like the looks of the 12z ECMWF which I place alot of stock in in terms of consistency as it usually doesn't waver to an extreme like others
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081112!!/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081112!!/
0 likes
-
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: Models Thread for 90L
GFDL calls for a hurricane at 40W. I think it's also moving towards the northern Caribbean. Another Georges?
0 likes
- windstorm99
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1578
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Contact:
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:HRWF has a major hurricane near the Carib in 5 days
Derek you think if 90L is major hurricane near the caribbean as the HRWF is calling for might this up the risk for florida or no?Adrian
0 likes
Re:
0 likes
- windstorm99
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1578
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Contact:
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:why are we worrying about 10 day forecasts now? The margin of error is more than 1000 miles.
The Carib is about 5 days away, so that can be forecast... the mainland... another story
Just a question Derek...
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, islandgirl45 and 35 guests