Global Models Thread for 90L

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Ola
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Re:

#481 Postby Ola » Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:54 pm

SCUBAdude wrote:Just curious, what is the importance of the 500mb winds in regards to the storm. Is it shear or steering?
TIA,
SD.


Steering. For shear you look higher up like at 250mb.
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#482 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:58 pm

72 hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif
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#483 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:04 pm

90 hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif
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Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#484 Postby bvigal » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:04 pm

Image
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Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#485 Postby El Nino » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:05 pm

Hum ... A 960mb hurricane approaching the Islands. Good for a cat2 borderline cat3 hurricane. :eek:
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#486 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:06 pm

How often is the hwrf run and when?
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Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#487 Postby Duddy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:07 pm

I'm more concerned about the low it develops soon in the Gulf that hits central Texas.

How accurate is this model with strength? Could that low become a Hurricane while trecking from the Yucatan across the Gulf?
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Re:

#488 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:09 pm

fact789 wrote:How often is the hwrf run and when?


its run the same as the gfdl 00z 06z 12z 18z
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Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#489 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:10 pm

Duddy wrote:I'm more concerned about the low it develops soon in the Gulf that hits central Texas.

How accurate is this model with strength? Could that low become a Hurricane while trecking from the Yucatan across the Gulf?


there is a thread for the carribean system i posted the gfs in there and will disscuss it there if you like
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Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#490 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:10 pm

It indicates another strong ridge and a lifting trough...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

The Caribbean system could put a dent in the upper-air pattern - we'll watch that scenario.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#491 Postby bvigal » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:11 pm

Speaking of models, did anyone check out the WaveWatchIII from NOAA?
http://www.lajollasurf.org/nata.html
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#492 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:13 pm

(00z GFS) 114 hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

The Islands once again look like a possible first target in about 5-6 days.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MiamiensisWx

Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#493 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:15 pm

It looks like another Gulf or FL system on this run. It maintains a similar 594 dbm ridge off the Bahamas and a retrograding weak trough over FL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif
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#494 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:24 pm

(00z GFS) 138 hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138l.gif

Powerful storm tearing through the islands in less than 6 days! :eek:
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#495 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:27 pm

(00z GFS) 156 hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

Movement still west. Not looking good for Jamaica.
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#496 Postby skysummit » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:30 pm

heck...this run may continue it due west into Central America under that potent ridge. Highly unlikely a strong hurricane will continue moving due west though.
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Re:

#497 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:31 pm

skysummit wrote:heck...this run may continue it due west into Central America under that potent ridge. Highly unlikely a strong hurricane will continue moving due west though.
Unlikely, yes...but not impossible.
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#498 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:33 pm

(00z GFS) 168 hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

Strong storm continuing west. Almost in the exact same position as during the 18z run too (though a hair slower and a bit stronger).
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#499 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:38 pm

(00z GFS) 240 hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240l.gif

Into the GOM again!
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Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#500 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:38 pm

Call it gut instinct, but I think it is erring south. (No, I'm not wishing it towards Florida)
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