Global Models Thread for 90L

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ola
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2003 11:24 pm
Location: Dorado, Puerto Rico

Re:

#481 Postby Ola » Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:54 pm

SCUBAdude wrote:Just curious, what is the importance of the 500mb winds in regards to the storm. Is it shear or steering?
TIA,
SD.


Steering. For shear you look higher up like at 250mb.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#482 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:58 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#483 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:04 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#484 Postby bvigal » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:04 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:

Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#485 Postby El Nino » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:05 pm

Hum ... A 960mb hurricane approaching the Islands. Good for a cat2 borderline cat3 hurricane. :eek:
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#486 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:06 pm

How often is the hwrf run and when?
0 likes   

User avatar
Duddy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:07 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC

Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#487 Postby Duddy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:07 pm

I'm more concerned about the low it develops soon in the Gulf that hits central Texas.

How accurate is this model with strength? Could that low become a Hurricane while trecking from the Yucatan across the Gulf?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re:

#488 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:09 pm

fact789 wrote:How often is the hwrf run and when?


its run the same as the gfdl 00z 06z 12z 18z
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#489 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:10 pm

Duddy wrote:I'm more concerned about the low it develops soon in the Gulf that hits central Texas.

How accurate is this model with strength? Could that low become a Hurricane while trecking from the Yucatan across the Gulf?


there is a thread for the carribean system i posted the gfs in there and will disscuss it there if you like
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#490 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:10 pm

It indicates another strong ridge and a lifting trough...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

The Caribbean system could put a dent in the upper-air pattern - we'll watch that scenario.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

#491 Postby bvigal » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:11 pm

Speaking of models, did anyone check out the WaveWatchIII from NOAA?
http://www.lajollasurf.org/nata.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#492 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:13 pm

(00z GFS) 114 hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

The Islands once again look like a possible first target in about 5-6 days.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#493 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:15 pm

It looks like another Gulf or FL system on this run. It maintains a similar 594 dbm ridge off the Bahamas and a retrograding weak trough over FL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#494 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:24 pm

(00z GFS) 138 hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138l.gif

Powerful storm tearing through the islands in less than 6 days! :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#495 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:27 pm

(00z GFS) 156 hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

Movement still west. Not looking good for Jamaica.
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#496 Postby skysummit » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:30 pm

heck...this run may continue it due west into Central America under that potent ridge. Highly unlikely a strong hurricane will continue moving due west though.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re:

#497 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:31 pm

skysummit wrote:heck...this run may continue it due west into Central America under that potent ridge. Highly unlikely a strong hurricane will continue moving due west though.
Unlikely, yes...but not impossible.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#498 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:33 pm

(00z GFS) 168 hrs...

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

Strong storm continuing west. Almost in the exact same position as during the 18z run too (though a hair slower and a bit stronger).
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#499 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:38 pm

0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Global Models Thread for 90L=00z GFS is being posted

#500 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:38 pm

Call it gut instinct, but I think it is erring south. (No, I'm not wishing it towards Florida)
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, islandgirl45 and 40 guests