Global Models for 90L

[Derek Ortt]

This one may head west regardless of intensity. BAM models depict a fairly uniform steering flow throughout the troposphere.

I do not see much of a dependence on intensity for this storm and tend to like the westward solution, for now

[SouthFloridawx]

Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

I don't like the EURO solution, it's moving the storm into a weakness that's not even there.

[x-y-no]

This one may head west regardless of intensity. BAM models depict a fairly uniform steering flow throughout the troposphere.

I do not see much of a dependence on intensity for this storm and tend to like the westward solution, for now

There should be at least some influence from the beta effect on a stronger system, shouldn't there? Or is the deep layer ridging so strong as to completely overcome that?

[CrazyC83]

Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

What time will we get the final word from the Euro this run?

Before 1:30 ET?

Also this storm reminds me of Emily and has since last night.

It seems Emily is a good analog for this one if the ridge holds up...I'm having a hard time figuring out the pattern in the central Atlantic (for a potential early recurve)...

[Derek Ortt]

Ivan didn't exactly head to the north, and it was a major hurricane

Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included. The deep layer flow seems strong enough to force a David type track at the moment, but of course it can change and a 5 day forecast is subject to a 350 mile error.

If the storm grows larger in size, then it may be more suceptible

[tgenius]

Ivan didn't exactly head to the north, and it was a major hurricane

Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included. The deep layer flow seems strong enough to force a David type track at the moment, but of course it can change and a 5 day forecast is subject to a 350 mile error.

If the storm grows larger in size, then it may be more suceptible

1979 David? I was one year old when that storm came calling to Miami, and it was wild how it skirted up the state...

[sevenleft]

Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

I don't like the EURO solution, it's moving the storm into a weakness that's not even there.

There absolutely is a weakness back around 168-192 hours from the trough. It tugs the system north, and then the building ridge sends the system back to the west, as shown in hours 216 and 240.

[wzrgirl1]

Ivan didn't exactly head to the north, and it was a major hurricane

Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included. The deep layer flow seems strong enough to force a David type track at the moment, but of course it can change and a 5 day forecast is subject to a 350 mile error.

If the storm grows larger in size, then it may be more suceptible

1979 David? I was one year old when that storm came calling to Miami, and it was wild how it skirted up the state...

I was 12. I hope this one doesn't get as close as David. I remember we used masking tape when that was fashionable back then.

[x-y-no]

Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included.

Ah, I wasn't aware of that.

Thanks for the explanation.

[sevenleft]

Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included.

Ah, I wasn't aware of that.

Thanks for the explanation.

Beta and Advection (BAM) Model.

[SouthFloridawx]

Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

I don't like the EURO solution, it's moving the storm into a weakness that's not even there.

There absolutely is a weakness back around 168-192 hours from the trough. It tugs the system north, and then the building ridge sends the system back to the west, as shown in hours 216 and 240.

Thanks I see that now...

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.5N 33.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 13.08.2007 11.5N 33.0W WEAK

00UTC 14.08.2007 11.3N 35.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2007 11.5N 37.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 12.6N 41.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.08.2007 12.9N 45.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 16.08.2007 13.6N 48.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2007 13.8N 53.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.08.2007 14.6N 57.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.08.2007 14.9N 61.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2007 15.2N 64.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2007 15.5N 67.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/ukmet.txt

12z UKMET is more west than in past runs.

487
WHXX04 KWBC 121726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.2 24.5 275./18.0
6 13.0 26.1 295./17.6
12 12.9 28.3 268./21.1
18 12.7 30.4 265./20.2
24 12.6 32.2 267./18.0
30 12.4 33.9 263./16.9
36 12.2 35.6 263./16.3
42 12.1 37.3 265./16.5
48 12.0 38.5 265./11.8
54 12.3 40.3 281./17.8
60 12.4 41.7 271./14.4
66 12.6 43.5 277./16.8
72 13.1 45.2 285./17.7
78 13.5 47.3 281./20.4
84 13.7 49.1 278./18.1
90 14.1 51.0 280./18.7
96 14.4 52.7 281./17.0
102 14.6 54.5 276./16.9
108 14.8 55.9 278./14.1
114 15.1 57.4 281./14.9
120 15.2 59.0 274./15.1
126 15.5 60.2 287./12.6


And 12z GFDL also goes west.

[wzrgirl1]

barely in the hebert box...

[Steve]

>>Gilbert!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! (Shhhh!)

>>Dont even think Texas. We do not want it and that goes for the entire NGOM. We had enough in 2005.

Agreed Kat. But the LA Coast is up to like 9 hits in the last 5 seasons if I can still count (Rita, Katrina, Cindy, Mathew, Bill, Lili, Isidore, Hanna, Bertha). 2002-2005 was our bullseye era I suppose.

Steve

[Brent]

Is the NOGAPS STILL not developing this?

[cycloneye]

Is the NOGAPS STILL not developing this?

NOGAPS is sleeping.Lets see if the 12z run soon brings something.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, the ukmet has shifted south now too? Interesting..

[MusicCityMan]

Looks all they take it into the Caribbean.. Does that mean it'll simply just crash into the Yucatan.. or by then will something pull it north and make it a threat to Florida or the GOM coast?

[Scorpion]

Looks like an Ivan track to me... I really doubt this goes north of the islands