Global Models for 90L

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Derek Ortt

#121 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:05 pm

This one may head west regardless of intensity. BAM models depict a fairly uniform steering flow throughout the troposphere.

I do not see much of a dependence on intensity for this storm and tend to like the westward solution, for now
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Re:

#122 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:10 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

I don't like the EURO solution, it's moving the storm into a weakness that's not even there.
Image
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Re:

#123 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:10 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:This one may head west regardless of intensity. BAM models depict a fairly uniform steering flow throughout the troposphere.

I do not see much of a dependence on intensity for this storm and tend to like the westward solution, for now


There should be at least some influence from the beta effect on a stronger system, shouldn't there? Or is the deep layer ridging so strong as to completely overcome that?
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Re: Re:

#124 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:11 pm

jason0509 wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!


What time will we get the final word from the Euro this run?

Before 1:30 ET?

Also this storm reminds me of Emily and has since last night.


It seems Emily is a good analog for this one if the ridge holds up...I'm having a hard time figuring out the pattern in the central Atlantic (for a potential early recurve)...
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Derek Ortt

#125 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:15 pm

Ivan didn't exactly head to the north, and it was a major hurricane

Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included. The deep layer flow seems strong enough to force a David type track at the moment, but of course it can change and a 5 day forecast is subject to a 350 mile error.

If the storm grows larger in size, then it may be more suceptible
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Re:

#126 Postby tgenius » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:17 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Ivan didn't exactly head to the north, and it was a major hurricane

Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included. The deep layer flow seems strong enough to force a David type track at the moment, but of course it can change and a 5 day forecast is subject to a 350 mile error.

If the storm grows larger in size, then it may be more suceptible


1979 David? I was one year old when that storm came calling to Miami, and it was wild how it skirted up the state...
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Re: Re:

#127 Postby sevenleft » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:17 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

I don't like the EURO solution, it's moving the storm into a weakness that's not even there.
Image
There absolutely is a weakness back around 168-192 hours from the trough. It tugs the system north, and then the building ridge sends the system back to the west, as shown in hours 216 and 240.
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Re: Re:

#128 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:19 pm

tgenius wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Ivan didn't exactly head to the north, and it was a major hurricane

Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included. The deep layer flow seems strong enough to force a David type track at the moment, but of course it can change and a 5 day forecast is subject to a 350 mile error.

If the storm grows larger in size, then it may be more suceptible


1979 David? I was one year old when that storm came calling to Miami, and it was wild how it skirted up the state...


I was 12. I hope this one doesn't get as close as David. I remember we used masking tape when that was fashionable back then.
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Re:

#129 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:20 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included.


Ah, I wasn't aware of that.

Thanks for the explanation.
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Re: Re:

#130 Postby sevenleft » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:22 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Beta effect is included in the BAM suite, so it is being included.


Ah, I wasn't aware of that.

Thanks for the explanation.
Beta and Advection (BAM) Model.
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Re: Re:

#131 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:23 pm

sevenleft wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Gilbert! But i don't see this one doing that!! GFS is crap on this last run in my opinion!!! Hurry up EURO!

I don't like the EURO solution, it's moving the storm into a weakness that's not even there.
There absolutely is a weakness back around 168-192 hours from the trough. It tugs the system north, and then the building ridge sends the system back to the west, as shown in hours 216 and 240.

Thanks I see that now...
Image
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Re: Global Models Thread for 90L

#132 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:30 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.5N 33.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 13.08.2007 11.5N 33.0W WEAK

00UTC 14.08.2007 11.3N 35.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2007 11.5N 37.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 12.6N 41.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.08.2007 12.9N 45.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 16.08.2007 13.6N 48.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2007 13.8N 53.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.08.2007 14.6N 57.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.08.2007 14.9N 61.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2007 15.2N 64.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2007 15.5N 67.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/ukmet.txt

12z UKMET is more west than in past runs.

487
WHXX04 KWBC 121726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.2 24.5 275./18.0
6 13.0 26.1 295./17.6
12 12.9 28.3 268./21.1
18 12.7 30.4 265./20.2
24 12.6 32.2 267./18.0
30 12.4 33.9 263./16.9
36 12.2 35.6 263./16.3
42 12.1 37.3 265./16.5
48 12.0 38.5 265./11.8
54 12.3 40.3 281./17.8
60 12.4 41.7 271./14.4
66 12.6 43.5 277./16.8
72 13.1 45.2 285./17.7
78 13.5 47.3 281./20.4
84 13.7 49.1 278./18.1
90 14.1 51.0 280./18.7
96 14.4 52.7 281./17.0
102 14.6 54.5 276./16.9
108 14.8 55.9 278./14.1
114 15.1 57.4 281./14.9
120 15.2 59.0 274./15.1
126 15.5 60.2 287./12.6


And 12z GFDL also goes west.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z UKMET,GFDL are westbound

#133 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:38 pm

barely in the hebert box...
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#134 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:39 pm

>>Gilbert!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: (Shhhh!)

>>Dont even think Texas. We do not want it and that goes for the entire NGOM. We had enough in 2005.

Agreed Kat. But the LA Coast is up to like 9 hits in the last 5 seasons if I can still count (Rita, Katrina, Cindy, Mathew, Bill, Lili, Isidore, Hanna, Bertha). 2002-2005 was our bullseye era I suppose.

Steve
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z UKMET,GFDL are westbound

#135 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:43 pm

Is the NOGAPS STILL not developing this?
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z UKMET,GFDL are westbound

#136 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:45 pm

Brent wrote:Is the NOGAPS STILL not developing this?


NOGAPS is sleeping.Lets see if the 12z run soon brings something.
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z UKMET,GFDL are westbound

#137 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:48 pm

Image
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z UKMET,GFDL are westbound

#138 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:50 pm

wow, the ukmet has shifted south now too? Interesting..
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#139 Postby MusicCityMan » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:51 pm

Looks all they take it into the Caribbean.. Does that mean it'll simply just crash into the Yucatan.. or by then will something pull it north and make it a threat to Florida or the GOM coast?
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Re: Global Models for 90L=12z UKMET,GFDL are westbound

#140 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:53 pm

Looks like an Ivan track to me... I really doubt this goes north of the islands
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