Global Models for 90L

[ronjon]

I dunno, there is a big weakness off the east coast of FL - will it pull the storm toward it?

[Wx_Warrior]

Really picking up some steam for future Dean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I dunno, there is a big weakness off the east coast of FL - will it pull the storm toward it?

that weakness is at 84 hrs. out. By the time we reach 102 hrs., it looks like this:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

Plus, a similar weakness has been featured in other runs, but the storm stays too far south to be affected.

[Extremeweatherguy]

114 hrs...

surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[Brent]

108 hours, right over the Antilles as a stronger storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

108 hours, right over the Antilles as a stronger storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

no see over islands in this one brent?

[ronjon]

For what it's worth, here is the HPC extrapolated 7 day position (north coast of Hispanola).

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

126 hrs..

surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

[Brent]

126, south of PR, so far not much different.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

For what it's worth, here is the HPC extrapolated 7 day position (north coast of Hispanola).

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

as a 1008mb low though? I don't think so.

BTW, here is a look at the current model consensus:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

the gray "consensus" line takes it to the center of the islands in 5 days.

[Steve H.]

Interestingly, the 12Z Euro dissipates the storm, and the NOGAPS doesn't show it at all. Maybe this is a non-event.

[windstorm99]

We'll if it continues straight west through the caribbean as the GFS seems to be calling for in this run it might even be a U.S threat.

Having said that we are talking models here 5-7 days out which cant really be taking to serious.

[DESTRUCTION5]

For what it's worth, here is the HPC extrapolated 7 day position (north coast of Hispanola).

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

as a 1008mb low though? I don't think so.

BTW, here is a look at the current model consensus:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

the gray "consensus" line takes it to the center of the islands in 5 days.

Notice if you throw out the Bam's you pretty much have 100% consensus..

[Brent]

144, not far to the south of Hispanola

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[ronjon]

That's a pretty good trough off the mid-Atlantic coast - can't believe this system isn't nudged further north. The HPC always downplays intensity and they do coordinate with TPC on position. I'm not saying it won't follow the GFS track but they probably are using the 00Z Euro to balance the consensus.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We'll if it continues straight west through the caribbean as the GFS seems to be calling for in this run it might even be a U.S threat.

We are talking models here 5-7 days out which cant really be taking to serious.

No, but 5-7 days out features much better accuracy than 10-15 days out. The average NHC 5-day track error is somewhere between 275-350 miles. Now considering this is just a model and not a forecast, the error might be a tad higher than that, but still, if I lived in the islands (which may only be 4-5 days away from an impact) I would be getting prepared.

[Extremeweatherguy]

144, not far to the south of Hispanola

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

it is amazing how close this run is to the 12z one! The storm is basically in the exact same spot at the exact same time on both runs.

[DESTRUCTION5]

144, not far to the south of Hispanola

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

waht the heck are you seeing? im seeing him just south pf PR?

[Brent]

156, between Haiti and Jamaica

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

144, not far to the south of Hispanola

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

waht the heck are you seeing? im seeing him just south pf PR?

I see it south of Hispanola too, not PR. Destruction, are you looking at an old image?