
Global Models for 90L
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Re: Global Models for 90L
I dunno, there is a big weakness off the east coast of FL - will it pull the storm toward it?


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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Global Models for 90L
that weakness is at 84 hrs. out. By the time we reach 102 hrs., it looks like this:ronjon wrote:I dunno, there is a big weakness off the east coast of FL - will it pull the storm toward it?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif
Plus, a similar weakness has been featured in other runs, but the storm stays too far south to be affected.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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114 hrs...
surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif
surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif
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Re: Global Models for 90L
108 hours, right over the Antilles as a stronger storm.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Global Models for 90L
Brent wrote:108 hours, right over the Antilles as a stronger storm.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
no see over islands in this one brent?
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Re: Global Models for 90L
For what it's worth, here is the HPC extrapolated 7 day position (north coast of Hispanola).
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
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126 hrs..
surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif
surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif
500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif
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Re: Global Models for 90L
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Re: Global Models for 90L
as a 1008mb low though? I don't think so.ronjon wrote:For what it's worth, here is the HPC extrapolated 7 day position (north coast of Hispanola).
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
BTW, here is a look at the current model consensus:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif
the gray "consensus" line takes it to the center of the islands in 5 days.
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Re: Global Models for 90L
Interestingly, the 12Z Euro dissipates the storm, and the NOGAPS doesn't show it at all. Maybe this is a non-event. 

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Re: Global Models for 90L
We'll if it continues straight west through the caribbean as the GFS seems to be calling for in this run it might even be a U.S threat.
Having said that we are talking models here 5-7 days out which cant really be taking to serious.
Having said that we are talking models here 5-7 days out which cant really be taking to serious.
Last edited by windstorm99 on Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Models for 90L
Extremeweatherguy wrote:as a 1008mb low though? I don't think so.ronjon wrote:For what it's worth, here is the HPC extrapolated 7 day position (north coast of Hispanola).
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
BTW, here is a look at the current model consensus:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif
the gray "consensus" line takes it to the center of the islands in 5 days.
Notice if you throw out the Bam's you pretty much have 100% consensus..
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Re: Global Models for 90L
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Re: Global Models for 90L
That's a pretty good trough off the mid-Atlantic coast - can't believe this system isn't nudged further north. The HPC always downplays intensity and they do coordinate with TPC on position. I'm not saying it won't follow the GFS track but they probably are using the 00Z Euro to balance the consensus.
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Re: Global Models for 90L
No, but 5-7 days out features much better accuracy than 10-15 days out. The average NHC 5-day track error is somewhere between 275-350 miles. Now considering this is just a model and not a forecast, the error might be a tad higher than that, but still, if I lived in the islands (which may only be 4-5 days away from an impact) I would be getting prepared.windstorm99 wrote:We'll if it continues straight west through the caribbean as the GFS seems to be calling for in this run it might even be a U.S threat.
We are talking models here 5-7 days out which cant really be taking to serious.
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Re: Global Models for 90L
it is amazing how close this run is to the 12z one! The storm is basically in the exact same spot at the exact same time on both runs.Brent wrote:144, not far to the south of Hispanola
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
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Re: Global Models for 90L
Brent wrote:144, not far to the south of Hispanola
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
waht the heck are you seeing? im seeing him just south pf PR?
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Re: Global Models for 90L
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Re: Global Models for 90L
I see it south of Hispanola too, not PR. Destruction, are you looking at an old image?DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Brent wrote:144, not far to the south of Hispanola
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
waht the heck are you seeing? im seeing him just south pf PR?
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