Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Andrew92]

Impressive looking system, and it has persisted. I do think this becomes a depression within a day and quite possibly Dean within a day or two.

-Andrew92

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't understand why there is no SSD t numbers. That is very weird....I say 2.0t now. Earlier this morning quickscats shown 30 knot winds on the west side. Yes eastly shear has kepted it from organizing fast all last night...But I think with the blow up finally blowing up is a sign that it is out running the eastly shear. So soild organizion appears to be going on.

[Sanibel]

Tuesday night this will really be entering our radar.

[canegrl04]

Beautiful imagery on the sat pics Gotta be a TD right now

[MiamiensisWx]

I created a layered image - I utilized the latest shortwave frame and I placed the recent QuikSCAT pass in the approximate location of the LLC (relative to the main convective mass).



It looks like organization is sufficient for a TD classification.

[miamicanes177]

I agree with the above posts and believe it's a tropical depression as we speak. NHC will upgrade it tonight most likely because they admitted in their TWO that only very slight increase in organization would make it an official TD.

And they might be delaying this as a TD because it would force them to issue a 5 day forecast path. Given the 12Z Euro, I would not want to issue a track forecast with intensity either.

[canetracker]

Intensity guidance goes anywhere from a strong TS to Strong Cat 1 in 120 hrs:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree with the above posts and believe it's a tropical depression as we speak. NHC will upgrade it tonight most likely because they admitted in their TWO that only very slight increase in organization would make it an official TD.

And they might be delaying this as a TD because it would force them to issue a 5 day forecast path. Given the 12Z Euro, I would not want to issue a track forecast with intensity either.

Intensity would be a hard one, but 5-day path would not. There is a tight model consensus showing this moving toward the Caribbean, so a 5-day track similar to the current CONU (consensus model) track is what I would bet for if they upgraded this at 11pm...


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

[wzrgirl1]

I agree with the above posts and believe it's a tropical depression as we speak. NHC will upgrade it tonight most likely because they admitted in their TWO that only very slight increase in organization would make it an official TD.

And they might be delaying this as a TD because it would force them to issue a 5 day forecast path. Given the 12Z Euro, I would not want to issue a track forecast with intensity either.

Intensity would be a hard one, but 5-day path would not. There is a tight model consensus showing this moving toward the Caribbean, so a 5-day track similar to the current CONU (consensus model) track is what I would bet for if they upgraded this at 11pm...


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

I have always had a problem getting these plots to work. Everytime I click on it it brings up other plots although it says storm 90. Anyone give me tips on how to get the current runs to come up. Thanks.

[Derek Ortt]

doesn't quite look like a TD yet... convection still a little too linear for my liking

[canetracker]

If the NHC has the slightest inclanation that this is a TD, they can't wait too long to issue a cone as it is only about 5 days away from the islands.

[Brent]

I agree with the above posts and believe it's a tropical depression as we speak. NHC will upgrade it tonight most likely because they admitted in their TWO that only very slight increase in organization would make it an official TD.

And they might be delaying this as a TD because it would force them to issue a 5 day forecast path. Given the 12Z Euro, I would not want to issue a track forecast with intensity either.

Intensity would be a hard one, but 5-day path would not. There is a tight model consensus showing this moving toward the Caribbean, so a 5-day track similar to the current CONU (consensus model) track is what I would bet for if they upgraded this at 11pm...


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

Intensity on the first forecast is always tricky. I suspect they'll be following SHIPS pretty closely since it seems to be in the middle.

and also, this is only 4 days from the islands...

If they don't upgrade at 11 tonight, most likely they'll have to wait til 11am and I'm not sure they will do that.

[Derek Ortt]

yes they can because it is 5 days away from the islands.


people are not supposed to be acting based upon a 5 day cone... doing so is quite foolish... they are supposed to be acting upon the advice given to them by local emergency management officials

[wzrgirl1]

That's a good point canetraker. I still think tomorrow morning because it will still be in the 5 day cone at the speed it's going. Will still give them plenty of time to prepare......although they should have some sort of preparations in order anyway.

[Weatherfreak14]

I personally a little skepticial on how strong the Gfs model is making the ridge aginst a possible CAT 1-3 hurricane possible, and i personally not buying the carribean track into the GOM just yet.. Because GFS model has shown a strong ridge building for the past month but it manages to break down very quickly and build back quickly. Plus with a possible STRONG Hurricane possible, i am see a little mor Northerly track maybe towards Purto rico or just south of Pureto rico. But this is long term predition, right now, given it is possibly a T,D, it will maintain a Westward track until it gains a Strong TS status then it might take a slighter turn toward the WNW. over the next 3 days.

[canetracker]

That's a good point canetraker. I still think tomorrow morning because it will still be in the 5 day cone at the speed it's going. Will still give them plenty of time to prepare......although they should have some sort of preparations in order anyway.

That is true and as Derek posted, they should be listening to their local emergency management officials.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah convection looks a little linear but I care more about the organizion of the LLC. Quickscat shows a soild LLC with 30 knot winds...Also a buoy to its south shown a north,northwest,west, wind as the system passed to its north. Confirming the quickscat. Barry did not have organized convection or about 30 percent of the systems out of every system.

[wxman57]

10 bucks for 11pm!

$1000 bucks nothing until visible shots tomorrow. We on? No reason for NHC to upgrade overnight when the center isn't even visible. It's no threat, they'll wait for proof convection exists over LLC. I think the LLC is still exposed east of the convection.

[RL3AO]

Considering convection still would have all night to build, I think it would be a storm at 5am.

[wxman57]

I have always had a problem getting these plots to work. Every time I click on it it brings up other plots although it says storm 90. Anyone give me tips on how to get the current runs to come up. Thanks.

What browser? Version? I suspect it's your web browser. PM me.