Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[wxman57]

Considering convection still would have all night to build, I think it would be a storm at 5am.

No visible imagery by then. NHC will wait for visible loops. No earlier than 10am CDT. But then, I only have to predict hurricanes in my job. It's harder predicting what the NHC will do.

[Derek Ortt]

I also believe the center is exposed.

The center would have had to move 3 degrees in the past 6 hours... for a forward speed of 30 mph to be under the convection. It's not quite moving that fast

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
25W S OF 18N...IS LOCATED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
12.5N25W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

[wxman57]

Watching GOES imagery, just as sun set on visible imagery, new burst cold top convection on North side of 90L

That's what I'm seeing. I think people are looking at the E Atlantic satellite shot which is 3+ hours old. It's building convection and the LLC is near 12N /27W.

12N/27W is about right for the center. But that convection is at 12N/29W - 120 miles away. I have it on 30-minute imagery now with 1-deg lat/lon lines.

[RL3AO]

[Recurve]

Low about 3630 miles from Keys & Miami, arrives 7 a.m. Monday, Aug. 20
on direct track at 20 mph.

Not saying that's likely either for track or speed, just an estimate for planning purposes.

To the farthest east Lesser Antilles, 2330 miles -- 116.5 hrs @ 20 mph -- Friday, 2 p.m.

[wxman57]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
25W S OF 18N...IS LOCATED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
12.5N25W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

I'm really starting to wonder about who's writing these things. 12.5N/25W is where the center was around 12Z. If it's moving at the 19 kts I calculated, it's nowhere near 25W as of 00Z.

[RL3AO]

I'm really starting to wonder about who's writing these things. 12.5N/25W is where the center was around 12Z. If it's moving at the 19 kts I calculated, it's nowhere near 25W as of 00Z.

Wow. You are right.

[Derek Ortt]

that is the 18Z position

Not sure why TAFB does that, but the 0Z TWD provides the 18Z positions

[canegrl04]

So they are even saying this could be TD 4 by 11pm.

[Downdraft]

Deep breath everyone. It's a big sandbox we can all play in it nicely.

[TheShrimper]

If it takes a week to get ready, then you shouldn't be living in a susceptable area in Florida. You know that, do you not? All you are accomplishing by statements such as "planning purposes", references from Key Largo, ect is causing alarm and hysteria for the many here that do not know which way a low pressure system spins. The key word for you Artist is "indeed". If you need 7-10 days to get ready, youd best take 70 west to 27 north and get a place in Lake Wales. We got plenty of time, why the hell are you taking a powder already?

[cycloneye]

A nice ball of convection.But the question is if the Low Pressure is beneath the clouds or still is exposed.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

TD#4 by 11pm fore sure!!!!!!!!!!

[Javlin]

I do not think so Luis if you look at the VIS you almost get that impression that the covection looks mushroomed and pushed to the the W image

[vacanechaser]

If it takes a week to get ready, then you shouldn't be living in a susceptable area in Florida. You know that, do you not? All you are accomplishing by statements such as "planning purposes", references from Key Largo, ect is causing alarm and hysteria for the many here that do not know which way a low pressure system spins. The key word for you Artist is "indeed". If you need 7-10 days to get ready, youd best take 70 west to 27 north and get a place in Lake Wales. We got plenty of time, why the hell are you taking a powder already?

i dont see anything wrong with what was said... nothing was said about boarding up, evacutions or anything of the sort... maybe the planing was in refrence to folks planning a trip or something... just a thought... you need to chill out and stop the flaming... i didnt see anything wrong with the post...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hurricanefloyd5]

we could very well see our first hurricane of the season!!!!!!!!

[Downdraft]

Heck I started planning the middle of May considering the season started June 1st. Guess I was really early.

[vacanechaser]

Heck I started planning the middle of May considering the season started June 1st. Guess I was really early.

lol.. good point... thats when they say to start!!!

i dont think we will see a td tonight... i think the nhc will wait till morning when they get a look at a visible shot... just my $.02



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[dixiebreeze]

Now on Dvorak:

12/2345 UTC 12.6N 26.6W T1.0/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Thinking there may be a TD issued at 10:30 p.m.