Global Models for 90L

[cycloneye]

They are running it again.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Sorry, but what do you mean--they're running it again? They're repeating the 18Z model run because there was a problem with it?

Thery are doing the run again with the same scenario.Dont ask me why thery did that as I dont know. But is the same scenario as the first 18z one.

[Pearl River]

The odd thing is, I was looking at the GFS run on the Accuweather site and it bounces it around the GOM. Starting out in the BOC at the 240 hr, then ne, then nw.

[ROCK]

they are running it again....up to 204hr.....don't see much change..in the day 9 location. Tip of the Yuc....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[cycloneye]

746
WHXX04 KWBC 122327
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.1 25.8 275./15.9
6 13.3 26.9 317./15.6
12 12.5 30.2 257./33.4
18 12.4 31.7 266./14.5
24 12.2 32.8 262./11.1
30 12.2 34.4 270./15.7
36 12.2 36.3 269./18.7
42 12.3 37.7 273./13.5
48 12.3 39.6 271./18.2
54 12.2 41.5 269./18.7
60 12.2 43.3 270./17.5
66 12.3 45.0 272./16.1
72 12.9 46.5 289./16.6
78 13.3 48.7 281./21.3
84 13.4 50.5 273./17.0
90 13.8 52.1 285./16.8
96 14.1 53.9 280./17.4
102 14.4 55.5 279./15.7
108 14.5 57.1 276./15.7
114 14.8 58.5 281./14.0
120 15.1 60.2 281./16.2
126 15.4 61.6 281./13.6



18z GFDL.

[ronjon]

Ronjon...post the 216 again so I can take a peek. Went back and all the links were dead.

My mistake, it was at 192 hrs. Here is the image.

[Wx_Warrior]

Do you have a link to that page so I can look so I wont have to keep asking?

[cycloneye]

Do you have a link to that page so I can look so I wont have to keep asking?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt

[ronjon]

Do you have a link to that page so I can look so I wont have to keep asking?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt

Luis, I think he was referring to the GFS model output link. Here it is Wx Warrior.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

[cycloneye]

Oh ok I am sorry about that.

[vaffie]

18Z GFDL slightly slower and further south than previous two runs.

[miamicanes177]

970mb impacting the Leewards according to 18Z GFDL

[Aquawind]

Have to admit I would be a tad surprised to see such a westward path with the inconsistant Bermuda high and ridging thus far.. The GFS certainly has for a few runs now though and takes it over some of the warmest waters in the basin.. All of the models are not in synch though and it's early.

[Derek Ortt]

I have to be honest here

I cannot take the GFS at all seriously when it has this disturbance initialized STRONGER than it does Flossie. Studies have shown even from the GPS dropsondes helping to improve the hurricane environment that there are significant changes to the forecast halfway around the world in the models. The lack of a halfway realistic Flossie initialization COULD be throwing off its forecast here


One reason why I never use the GFS either

[DESTRUCTION5]

I have to be honest here

I cannot take the GFS at all seriously when it has this disturbance initialized STRONGER than it does Flossie. Studies have shown even from the GPS dropsondes helping to improve the hurricane environment that there are significant changes to the forecast halfway around the world in the models. The lack of a halfway realistic Flossie initialization COULD be throwing off its forecast here


One reason why I never use the GFS either

What do you like model wise Derek?

[Derek Ortt]

I like the GFDL, GFDN, HWRF (except for Flossie, lol) and NOGAPS are my main ones. Canadian is not all that bad for a general trend once a system is actually developed, though I never use its precise forecast points in planning. I use the Canadian for the large scale picture, then the CONU for a precise track

The two I almost always avoid are the GFS for reasons I have stated numerous times, and the EURO. I avoid the EURO because I believe it does not use a vortex relocation scheme in its initialization, so the initial position can be somewhat off, though the 4DVAR data assimilation does help somewhat

[vaffie]

I like the GFDL, GFDN, HWRF (except for Flossie, lol) and NOGAPS are my main ones. Canadian is not all that bad for a general trend once a system is actually developed, though I never use its precise forecast points in planning.

The two I almost always avoid are the GFS for reasons I have stated numerous times, and the EURO. I avoid the EURO because I believe it does not use a vortex relocation scheme in its initialization, so the initial position can be somewhat off, though the 4DVAR data assimilation does help somewhat

I was curious, Derek, then, if you give more weight to the GFDN over the GFDL, since the GFDL uses the boundary conditions set by the GFS--which you wouldn't believe in this case because it's not initializing Flossie well for instance, whereas the GFDN uses the NOGAPS boundary conditions. Let me just add that apparently it's been published that the GFDN does better in hurricane forecasting than the GFDL. See: http://ams.confex.com/ams/last2000/tech ... _12325.htm

[Derek Ortt]

I usually do give slightly more weight to the GFDN

[canetracker]

18z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2007081218-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[canetracker]

I was curious, Derek, then, if you give more weight to the GFDN over the GFDL, since the GFDL uses the boundary conditions set by the GFS--which you wouldn't believe in this case because it's not initializing Flossie well for instance, whereas the GFDN uses the NOGAPS boundary conditions. Let me just add that apparently it's been published that the GFDN does better in hurricane forecasting than the GFDL. See: http://ams.confex.com/ams/last2000/tech ... _12325.htm

Is there a publically accesible link to an animated version of the GFDN?

[caneman]

Well on that path maybe DR and Haiti will have a chance to work some of that magic on it and tear it up.