vaffie wrote:
Sorry, but what do you mean--they're running it again? They're repeating the 18Z model run because there was a problem with it?
Thery are doing the run again with the same scenario.Dont ask me why thery did that as I dont know.

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vaffie wrote:
Sorry, but what do you mean--they're running it again? They're repeating the 18Z model run because there was a problem with it?
Wx_Warrior wrote:Ronjon...post the 216 again so I can take a peek. Went back and all the links were dead.
Wx_Warrior wrote:Do you have a link to that page so I can look so I wont have to keep asking?
cycloneye wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:Do you have a link to that page so I can look so I wont have to keep asking?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt
Derek Ortt wrote:I have to be honest here
I cannot take the GFS at all seriously when it has this disturbance initialized STRONGER than it does Flossie. Studies have shown even from the GPS dropsondes helping to improve the hurricane environment that there are significant changes to the forecast halfway around the world in the models. The lack of a halfway realistic Flossie initialization COULD be throwing off its forecast here
One reason why I never use the GFS either
Derek Ortt wrote:I like the GFDL, GFDN, HWRF (except for Flossie, lol) and NOGAPS are my main ones. Canadian is not all that bad for a general trend once a system is actually developed, though I never use its precise forecast points in planning.
The two I almost always avoid are the GFS for reasons I have stated numerous times, and the EURO. I avoid the EURO because I believe it does not use a vortex relocation scheme in its initialization, so the initial position can be somewhat off, though the 4DVAR data assimilation does help somewhat
vaffie wrote:I was curious, Derek, then, if you give more weight to the GFDN over the GFDL, since the GFDL uses the boundary conditions set by the GFS--which you wouldn't believe in this case because it's not initializing Flossie well for instance, whereas the GFDN uses the NOGAPS boundary conditions. Let me just add that apparently it's been published that the GFDN does better in hurricane forecasting than the GFDL. See: http://ams.confex.com/ams/last2000/tech ... _12325.htm
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