Global Models for 90L

[Extremeweatherguy]

96 hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

[Sanibel]

96 hour clobbers Martinique.

[Extremeweatherguy]

120 hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

In the eastern Caribbean in 5 days! Hits the Leewards in 96-102 hrs. (Only 4-4.5 days! )

[Ivanhater]

Slamming Jamaica at 156...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156m.gif

[astrosbaseball22]

168

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168m.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

168 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

[astrosbaseball22]

174

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

looks like mexico or texas ......again

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking like possibly the 6th GOM run in a row now with the 0z run. Though this is a long range model, there is definitely an alarming trend here. Usually these long range runs are never so consistant, and they typically flip flop each time...that is not the case currently though. It makes me wonder if all these models may be onto something? One thing I do not see this system doing anymore (based on this trend as well as the model consensus) is recurving off the east coast. IMO, this now looks like a likely Caribbean entering storm followed by a GOM, Central America/Mexico or a FL end path.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hr. 192 (8 days from now - a.k.a. next Monday evening)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

Cancun hit hard!

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192l.gif

[astrosbaseball22]

hr. 192...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

Cancun hit hard!

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192l.gif

Texas or Mexico AGAIN!!

[Sanibel]

Yeah, it makes you wonder. GFS insisted this would form, and it did. Now it insists it will Low-track into the SW GOM.

[astrosbaseball22]

252

HAMMERS Texas/Mexico Border--but mainly Mexico

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml

[Sanibel]

Same place as Emily landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Texas/Mexico border in 252 hours (10.5 days)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

..6th run IN A ROW now!

[vaffie]

Looking like possibly the 6th GOM run in a row now with the 0z run. Though this is a long range model, there is definitely an alarming trend here. Usually these long range runs are never so consistant, and they typically flip flop each time...that is not the case currently though. It makes me wonder if all these models may be onto something? One thing I do not see this system doing anymore (based on this trend as well as the model consensus) is recurving off the east coast. IMO, this now looks like a likely Caribbean entering storm followed by a GOM, Central America/Mexico or a FL end path.

I agree with you that the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to look more likely now than it did even yesterday, but until it reaches 60W and landfall in the Gulf of Mexico becomes less than a 7 day forecast, there will still be a lot of uncertainty about the strength and predicted strength of the Bermuda high, any cold fronts that may enter the central plains, even the possibility that the current wave in the Caribbean might affect it's ultimate track, etc.

[MetSul Weather Center]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

South of Brownsville

[Opal storm]

With this ridge in place a Mexico event wouldn't surprise me...like Emily. But that's still very far out.

[Stormcenter]

Personally I don't like to see any potential system in the GOM in late August.
If and when this gets into the GOM then all bets are off in my opinion.

[Brent]

Consistency is amazing here.