Global Models for 90L

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Extremeweatherguy
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#321 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:09 pm

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Re: Global Models for 90L

#322 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:16 pm

96 hour clobbers Martinique.
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#323 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:19 pm

120 hrs..

Surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

In the eastern Caribbean in 5 days! Hits the Leewards in 96-102 hrs. (Only 4-4.5 days! :eek: )
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#324 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:29 pm

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Re: Global Models for 90L

#325 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:32 pm

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#326 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:36 pm

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Re: Global Models for 90L

#327 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:37 pm

174

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

looks like mexico or texas ......again :eek:
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#328 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:41 pm

Looking like possibly the 6th GOM run in a row now with the 0z run. Though this is a long range model, there is definitely an alarming trend here. Usually these long range runs are never so consistant, and they typically flip flop each time...that is not the case currently though. It makes me wonder if all these models may be onto something? One thing I do not see this system doing anymore (based on this trend as well as the model consensus) is recurving off the east coast. IMO, this now looks like a likely Caribbean entering storm followed by a GOM, Central America/Mexico or a FL end path.
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#329 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:42 pm

hr. 192 (8 days from now - a.k.a. next Monday evening)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

Cancun hit hard!

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192l.gif
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#330 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:43 pm




Texas or Mexico AGAIN!!
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#331 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:45 pm

Yeah, it makes you wonder. GFS insisted this would form, and it did. Now it insists it will Low-track into the SW GOM.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#332 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:45 pm

252

HAMMERS Texas/Mexico Border--but mainly Mexico

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#333 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:47 pm

Same place as Emily landfall.
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#334 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:47 pm

Texas/Mexico border in 252 hours (10.5 days)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

..6th run IN A ROW now!
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Re:

#335 Postby vaffie » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:47 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looking like possibly the 6th GOM run in a row now with the 0z run. Though this is a long range model, there is definitely an alarming trend here. Usually these long range runs are never so consistant, and they typically flip flop each time...that is not the case currently though. It makes me wonder if all these models may be onto something? One thing I do not see this system doing anymore (based on this trend as well as the model consensus) is recurving off the east coast. IMO, this now looks like a likely Caribbean entering storm followed by a GOM, Central America/Mexico or a FL end path.


I agree with you that the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to look more likely now than it did even yesterday, but until it reaches 60W and landfall in the Gulf of Mexico becomes less than a 7 day forecast, there will still be a lot of uncertainty about the strength and predicted strength of the Bermuda high, any cold fronts that may enter the central plains, even the possibility that the current wave in the Caribbean might affect it's ultimate track, etc.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#336 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:47 pm

Image

Image
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#337 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:47 pm

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Opal storm

Re: Global Models for 90L

#338 Postby Opal storm » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:47 pm

With this ridge in place a Mexico event wouldn't surprise me...like Emily. But that's still very far out.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#339 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:49 pm

Personally I don't like to see any potential system in the GOM in late August.
If and when this gets into the GOM then all bets are off in my opinion.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#340 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 12, 2007 11:52 pm

Consistency is amazing here.
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