Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

[CourierPR]

The convection appears to have weakened some on latest satellite images.

[lrak]

Looks good to me.


SURF!

[destruction92]

Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.

According to the NHC, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS."

I think classifying this disorganized system as a depression by 11 AM today "and a tropical storm shortly thereafter" is quite a stretch of the imagination.

[HouTXmetro]

The convection appears to have weakened some on latest satellite images.

Doesn't look like the convection is weakening to me. If anything it's consolidating.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't think there is anyway in heck this can develop with that ULL leading the way..

[Roxy]

Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.

According to the NHC, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS."

I think classifying this disorganized system as a depression by 11 AM today "and a tropical storm shortly thereafter" is quite a stretch of the imagination.

he said Tuesday.

[Steve]

>>Upper level low over gulf of Mexico...

No. Tropical wave squeezed between a retrograding ULL and a TUTT feature down in the western Caribbean.

>>I don't think there is anyway in heck this can develop with that ULL leading the way..

Depends on which way it heads and the relative positioning. Last one went straight into Mexico heading due west.

Steve

[cpdaman]

Steve what do you see as the best direction (given it's location between the ULL and the TUTT) this could move in order 2 organize more and which direction do you think it will move

[lrak]

Total newb can see some spinning and the Yucatan channal buoy has a due S wind. The center appears right next to Mexico, like the pic above.

[tailgater]

Looking a little more organized all the time. At this time yesterday the ULL was directly N, if not a little NNE of what looked like an elongated circ. near the Isle of Youth. Here's the latest 850mb vorticitiy map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vor4Z.html

[lrak]

Looking a little more organized all the time. At this time yesterday the ULL was directly N, if not a little NNE of what looked like an elongated circ. near the Isle of Youth. Here's the latest 850mb vorticitiy map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vor4Z.html

Its like the little train that could.

[vaffie]

Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.

According to the NHC, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS."

I think classifying this disorganized system as a depression by 11 AM today "and a tropical storm shortly thereafter" is quite a stretch of the imagination.

I never said a depression today, I said a depression by Tuesday. I said an invest by tonight.

[Stormcenter]

Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.

According to the NHC, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS."

I think classifying this disorganized system as a depression by 11 AM today "and a tropical storm shortly thereafter" is quite a stretch of the imagination.

I never said a depression today, I said a depression by Tuesday. I said an invest by tonight.

The invest is on.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

BOC buoy has NNE winds

[tailgater]

Invest is now up on NRL site. I thought the center would a little closer to the tip of CUBA