Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

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CourierPR
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#221 Postby CourierPR » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:24 am

The convection appears to have weakened some on latest satellite images.
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lrak
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#222 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:33 am

NDG wrote:Image


Looks good to me.


SURF!
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#223 Postby destruction92 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:33 am

vaffie wrote:Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.


According to the NHC, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS."

I think classifying this disorganized system as a depression by 11 AM today "and a tropical storm shortly thereafter" is quite a stretch of the imagination.
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#224 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:37 am

CourierPR wrote:The convection appears to have weakened some on latest satellite images.


Doesn't look like the convection is weakening to me. If anything it's consolidating.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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#225 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:40 am

I don't think there is anyway in heck this can develop with that ULL leading the way..
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#226 Postby Roxy » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:41 am

destruction92 wrote:
vaffie wrote:Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.


According to the NHC, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS."

I think classifying this disorganized system as a depression by 11 AM today "and a tropical storm shortly thereafter" is quite a stretch of the imagination.


he said Tuesday.
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Steve
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#227 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:46 am

>>Upper level low over gulf of Mexico...

No. Tropical wave squeezed between a retrograding ULL and a TUTT feature down in the western Caribbean.

>>I don't think there is anyway in heck this can develop with that ULL leading the way..

Depends on which way it heads and the relative positioning. Last one went straight into Mexico heading due west.

Steve
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#228 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:58 am

Steve what do you see as the best direction (given it's location between the ULL and the TUTT) this could move in order 2 organize more and which direction do you think it will move
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#229 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:01 am

Total newb can see some spinning and the Yucatan channal buoy has a due S wind. The center appears right next to Mexico, like the pic above.
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#230 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:04 am

Looking a little more organized all the time. At this time yesterday the ULL was directly N, if not a little NNE of what looked like an elongated circ. near the Isle of Youth. Here's the latest 850mb vorticitiy map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vor4Z.html
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#231 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:05 am

tailgater wrote:Looking a little more organized all the time. At this time yesterday the ULL was directly N, if not a little NNE of what looked like an elongated circ. near the Isle of Youth. Here's the latest 850mb vorticitiy map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vor4Z.html


Its like the little train that could. :D
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#232 Postby vaffie » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:06 am

destruction92 wrote:
vaffie wrote:Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.


According to the NHC, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS."

I think classifying this disorganized system as a depression by 11 AM today "and a tropical storm shortly thereafter" is quite a stretch of the imagination.


I never said a depression today, I said a depression by Tuesday. I said an invest by tonight.
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#233 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:08 am

vaffie wrote:
destruction92 wrote:
vaffie wrote:Taking a fresh look at it at 5:30 am central time, with pressures falling at the buoy and Cancun, with much better looking organization on satellite with continued convection, increased vorticity, less shear and keep in mind that though the center is partly over land, the water here is the hottest anywhere in the Atlantic basin--more than making up for any land interaction. I expect an invest today and perhaps a depression by 11 am on Tuesday, and a tropical storm shortly thereafter.


According to the NHC, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS."

I think classifying this disorganized system as a depression by 11 AM today "and a tropical storm shortly thereafter" is quite a stretch of the imagination.


I never said a depression today, I said a depression by Tuesday. I said an invest by tonight.


The invest is on.
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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#234 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:09 am

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Re: Caribbean Development?:Thread 2

#235 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:14 am

Invest is now up on NRL site. I thought the center would a little closer to the tip of CUBA
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