INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[jasons2k]

I've pretty much thought of this system like Wxman - as a "decoy" - up until now. The slower progress (in forward motion) does concern me and as we have often seen with systems like this there can be a transient channel (weakness) for this thing to slip north. I'll be watching this more closely now...

[punkyg]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[CajunMama]

I think it will be further north up the coast in TX.

why?

Look at his location. Houston!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

got a feeling this thing is going to explode, hope I'm wrong!!

[Aric Dunn]

got a feeling this thing is going to explode

i agree... but it all depends on its orientation with that upper low ... but as of now it looks as though the upper low is pulling away which should allow the system to move under very very favorable upper environment! with two possible outflow jets

and that all depends of if it can get some distance away from land.. which it should either by moving or reforming where ever (or if ever) we some deep convection to fire .. if that happens

[jaxfladude]

The following reply is a joke on the media's need for ratings and "Panic Time" and should be treated as such

got a feeling this thing is going to explode

TD#5 has formed in the W Caribbean and may be come the next named TS just a day after TD #4 becomes Dean if so TD#5 will be named Erin.......
Just being the media and jumping the gun.....

[Nimbus]

The ULL is rolling off to the west at a good clip and it does look like high pressure will build over the LLC. Aric by two outflow sources are you refering to the new low that looks like it is breaking off east of Florida? That would allow for a fair sized anticyclone in the middle. I see the big plains high pulling everything westward as per forecast, but a strong high mid gulf could delay things.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[jasons2k]

In the last visible shots of the day, it does look like nice outflow is getting established. Could get very interesting overnight.

[HURAKAN]

In the last visible shots of the day, it does look like nice outflow is getting established. Could get very interesting overnight.

I think as the ULL moves to the west it will leave the LLC alone and provide a better environment for development. I expect TD #5 in the next 24 hrs. Remember to follow what the NHC is the official word and must of the members of S2k are hurricane enthusiasts and not meteorologists, so don't take my word as the official one.

[wxman57]

Unless some serious convection forms over the low, I think the NHC will wait for recon.

Recon is not scheduled until tomorrow. Plenty of time before they would need to make a decision to "wait."

The only problem with that is landfall is expected Wednesday evening, less than 36 hours before recon will be there. I think it'll be organized enough by morning to classify it TD 5. Recon will be out there in the afternoon and it could get the upgrade to TS then if squalls build near the center. Won't have a lot of time over the water, though. Should be inland Wednesday night. Can't absolutely rule out the chance of it reaching hurricane strength in a small area out over the water by landfall, but 50-60 mph north of the center at landfall is a better bet, and not likely a large area of such winds. Pretty hectic day at work - 5am-5:30pm. My next day off is scheduled for around the 28th of August, maybe.

[HURAKAN]

My next day off is scheduled for around the 28th of August, maybe.

Bad day in a hurricane season!!!

[Aric Dunn]

cancun radar animation i made

[lrak]

spinning nicely

[HURAKAN]

spinning nicely

We just need to get rid of the ULL and hello "Dean" or "Erin"!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Ok this one is better ...

i can only due 9 images so it will have to do

[lrak]

spinning nicely

We just need to get rid of the ULL and hello "Dean" or "Erin"!!!

“Ready are you? What know you of ready? For eight hundred years have I trained Jedi. My own counsel will I keep on who is to be trained. A Jedi must have the deepest commitment, the most serious mind. This one a long time have I watched. All its life has it looked away... to the future, to the horizon. Never its mind on where it was. Hmm? What it was doing. Hmph. Adventure. Heh. Excitement. Heh. A Jedi craves not these things. You are reckless.”

[lrak]

Ok this one is better ...

i can only due 9 images so it will have to do

nice little rap around starting up.

[joseintexas]

Hello my friends i am still learning im only 32 but how early can this form?

[sevenleft]

Hello my friends i am still learning im only 32 but how early can this form?

18-36 hours, with an emphasis on the latter half.

[chadtm80]

Hello my friends i am still learning im only 32 but how early can this form?

You couldn't just take your suspension and deal with it.. This is your 4th account you have set up and used since your suspension... You will now be perminatley banned.