INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

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jasons2k
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#221 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 13, 2007 5:28 pm

I've pretty much thought of this system like Wxman - as a "decoy" - up until now. The slower progress (in forward motion) does concern me and as we have often seen with systems like this there can be a transient channel (weakness) for this thing to slip north. I'll be watching this more closely now...
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#222 Postby punkyg » Mon Aug 13, 2007 5:35 pm

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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM=5:30 PM TWO Posted

#223 Postby CajunMama » Mon Aug 13, 2007 5:49 pm

Sambucol wrote:
I think it will be further north up the coast in TX.


why?


Look at his location. Houston!
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#224 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Mon Aug 13, 2007 5:50 pm

got a feeling this thing is going to explode, hope I'm wrong!! :eek:
Last edited by weatherrabbit_tx on Mon Aug 13, 2007 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#225 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 13, 2007 5:53 pm

weatherrabbit_tx wrote:got a feeling this thing is going to explode :eek:



i agree... but it all depends on its orientation with that upper low ... but as of now it looks as though the upper low is pulling away which should allow the system to move under very very favorable upper environment! with two possible outflow jets

and that all depends of if it can get some distance away from land.. which it should either by moving or reforming where ever (or if ever) we some deep convection to fire .. if that happens
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Re:

#226 Postby jaxfladude » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:01 pm

The following reply is a joke on the media's need for ratings and "Panic Time" and should be treated as such

weatherrabbit_tx wrote:got a feeling this thing is going to explode :eek:

TD#5 has formed in the W Caribbean and may be come the next named TS just a day after TD #4 becomes Dean if so TD#5 will be named Erin.......
Just being the media and jumping the gun..... :lol:
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#227 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:07 pm

The ULL is rolling off to the west at a good clip and it does look like high pressure will build over the LLC. Aric by two outflow sources are you refering to the new low that looks like it is breaking off east of Florida? That would allow for a fair sized anticyclone in the middle. I see the big plains high pulling everything westward as per forecast, but a strong high mid gulf could delay things.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
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#228 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:14 pm

In the last visible shots of the day, it does look like nice outflow is getting established. Could get very interesting overnight.
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Re:

#229 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:19 pm

jschlitz wrote:In the last visible shots of the day, it does look like nice outflow is getting established. Could get very interesting overnight.


I think as the ULL moves to the west it will leave the LLC alone and provide a better environment for development. I expect TD #5 in the next 24 hrs. Remember to follow what the NHC is the official word and must of the members of S2k are hurricane enthusiasts and not meteorologists, so don't take my word as the official one.
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Re: Re:

#230 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:20 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Unless some serious convection forms over the low, I think the NHC will wait for recon.


Recon is not scheduled until tomorrow. Plenty of time before they would need to make a decision to "wait."


The only problem with that is landfall is expected Wednesday evening, less than 36 hours before recon will be there. I think it'll be organized enough by morning to classify it TD 5. Recon will be out there in the afternoon and it could get the upgrade to TS then if squalls build near the center. Won't have a lot of time over the water, though. Should be inland Wednesday night. Can't absolutely rule out the chance of it reaching hurricane strength in a small area out over the water by landfall, but 50-60 mph north of the center at landfall is a better bet, and not likely a large area of such winds. Pretty hectic day at work - 5am-5:30pm. My next day off is scheduled for around the 28th of August, maybe.
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Re: Re:

#231 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:22 pm

wxman57 wrote: My next day off is scheduled for around the 28th of August, maybe.


Bad day in a hurricane season!!!
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#232 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:26 pm

cancun radar animation i made

Image
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#233 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:34 pm

spinning nicely 8-)
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#234 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:36 pm

lrak wrote:spinning nicely 8-)


We just need to get rid of the ULL and hello "Dean" or "Erin"!!!
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#235 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:39 pm

Ok this one is better ...

i can only due 9 images so it will have to do

:)

Image
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#236 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:42 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
lrak wrote:spinning nicely 8-)


We just need to get rid of the ULL and hello "Dean" or "Erin"!!!


“Ready are you? What know you of ready? For eight hundred years have I trained Jedi. My own counsel will I keep on who is to be trained. A Jedi must have the deepest commitment, the most serious mind. This one a long time have I watched. All its life has it looked away... to the future, to the horizon. Never its mind on where it was. Hmm? What it was doing. Hmph. Adventure. Heh. Excitement. Heh. A Jedi craves not these things. You are reckless.”
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#237 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Ok this one is better ...

i can only due 9 images so it will have to do

:)

Image



nice little rap around starting up.
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#238 Postby joseintexas » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:48 pm

Hello my friends i am still learning im only 32 but how early can this form?
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#239 Postby sevenleft » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:50 pm

joseintexas wrote:Hello my friends i am still learning im only 32 but how early can this form?
18-36 hours, with an emphasis on the latter half.
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Re: INVEST 91L: near W Carib/GOM

#240 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:52 pm

joseintexas wrote:Hello my friends i am still learning im only 32 but how early can this form?

You couldn't just take your suspension and deal with it.. This is your 4th account you have set up and used since your suspension... You will now be perminatley banned.
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