INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Stormcenter]

If you look further to the north and east from where the low center is suppose to be it's almost like you see a new broad circulation forming. Hey just my observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[joseintexas]

Hello my friends i am still learning im only 32 but how early can this form?

You couldn't just take your suspension and deal with it.. This is your 4th account you have set up and used since your suspension... You will now be perminatley banned.

What are you talking about sir.This is my 1st account, I have no idea what you are talking about.

[HURAKAN]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.7 87.1 290./11.1
6 22.1 87.7 305./ 7.2
12 22.9 88.7 306./11.5
18 23.8 89.6 317./12.4
24 24.7 90.8 307./13.8
30 25.0 92.2 282./13.6
36 25.2 93.8 279./14.6
42 26.0 95.3 298./15.6
48 26.6 96.9 290./15.8
54 27.0 98.4 283./13.2
60 27.4 99.7 287./12.1
66 27.9 100.7 297./10.1
72 28.2 101.7 289./10.0
78 29.1 103.0 303./14.5
84 30.1 104.3 309./15.3
90 31.2 105.6 311./15.0
96 32.2 106.2 327./11.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Aric Dunn]

If you look further to the north and east from where the low center is suppose to be it's almost like you see a new broad circulation forming. Hey just my observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

looks more mid level ...but could possibly try to reform farther to the north

[Extremeweatherguy]

[AnnularCane]

If it reformed farther north, would it have any significant affect on the forecast track?

[jasons2k]

If it reformed farther north, would it have any significant affect on the forecast track?

Yes - see Cindy, Exhibit: A

EDIT: But don't look for this to go to LA, that was an entirely differnt scenario. But any reformation to the NE *could* mean a landfall further up the TX coast.

[Frank P]

Looks more mid level to me too.. obviously stacking issues in the early stages of development, if it were to become the dominate circulation center and it could work its way down to the surface, then it would have an impact on where this thing would eventually go.. probably further up the TX coast but just speculating on my part... chances are the the LLC off the coast of the Yucatan will win out and the invest will continue to head off to the west to north west.. but ya never know, which makes these things so interesting to monitor

[KatDaddy]

I would not be surprised to see another center form further N and E of the current LLC. We see this often with disorganized weak/developing tropical systems. Current satellite looks like its slowly coming together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

Slow drift west above Yucatan of a spinning LLC.

[xironman]

Ship with a nice fresh breeze

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY 
           (GMT)                 nm  °T   °T   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec  °T     in    in 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP     S 0000  23.80  -87.70  182 307   80  29.9     -   9.8   4.0     -   -  29.77 -0.03

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see another center form further N and E of the current LLC. We see this often with disorganized weak/developing tropical systems. Current satellite looks like its slowly coming together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Cancun radar view is interesting. Might be on to something to the NE...

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

[mgpetre]

Anyone noticing that the ULL in the gulf is getting quite a bit more of a northward component in the last couple of Satellite frames? Looks like further up the TX coast is quite the possibility if this holds its trend. Any thoughts?

[Derek Ortt]

I'm seeing the system at about 22.7N and 87.6W, or a little NNW of Cancun

[wxman57]

First of all, check the link on my hurricane links web page for the radar beam height calculator. Derek's position, for example, is 110nm NW of Cancun. (http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html). That puts the beam center at just under 15,000 ft above the surface. I think that the map below indicates the broad low may be a bit northwest of that point, but it's certainly no tight center so you can pick a number of spots out there as the "center". Lowest pressure in the area probably about 1006 mb, though there are no ships in the area of the lowest pressure:

[HouTXmetro]

Satellite presentation looks horrible tonight in terms of organization and convection.

[KatDaddy]

Pretty much goes with what the Cancun radar shows. There is a small feederband-like area of heavy showers just NNW of the tip of the Yucatan

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

[KatDaddy]

Thanks for the plot map Wxman57. Its definitely shows were the LLC is located. A very disorganized system currently.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the plot map Wxman57. Its definitely shows were the LLC is located. A very disorganized system currently.

Thanks wxman57.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is an image I just plotted showing the approx. location Derek thinks the LLC is at...


22.7N, 87.6W

This is a little further to the SE than what wxman's image shows above.