CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[EyELeSs1]

06z GFDL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested/storm_2/06/images/hur_pcp_126l.gif

Farther SW then 00z, 06z now in NE Caribbean

06z HWRF
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif

Just south of PR, much farther SW from the 00z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif

06Z GFDL back directly over Antigua... not a fun sight!

Anyone willing to comment a little on intensity today and it's current organizational trend?

[windstorm99]

Folks this is indeed the forcast by the national hurricane center with slow intensification at first followed by a more steady intensification as it runs into a more favorable environment as it approaches the islands.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Nice visible loop of TD 4 and I also notice a low level vortex or circulation center about maybe 200 to 300 miles west of TD 4.

[punkyg]

Nice visible loop of TD 4 and I also notice a low level vortex or circulation center about maybe 200 to 300 miles west of TD 4.

I can't see it cause i keep seeing the old loop.
when will they show the new one.

[HURAKAN]

Nice!!!

[miamicanes177]

I don't understand why the NHC won't name it. Just because it is a little sheared doesnt make a difference... QUIKSAT sees 55 kt winds

They've not had the 10 o clock update yet. They are probably waiting to be sure convection remains strong. If it starts dying off then it wont get named.

[windstorm99]

Nice!!!

Link to the that animation please...Thanks Adrian

[Fego]

I'm a weather enthusiastic but as I see TD4 right now 8:44 a.m. it look horrible... for sure surviving the shear. Dean won't show up at 10:30 a.m, may be 5:30.pm.

[punkyg]

Nice!!!

Link to the that animation please...Thanks Adrian

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00704.html

[HURAKAN]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 5d#a_topad

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

134
WHXX01 KWBC 141248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070814 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070814  1200   070815  0000   070815  1200   070816  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  38.6W   12.5N  41.4W   12.6N  44.9W   12.8N  48.6W
BAMD    12.0N  38.6W   12.2N  41.8W   12.3N  45.1W   12.6N  48.6W
BAMM    12.0N  38.6W   12.2N  41.9W   12.2N  45.7W   12.2N  49.5W
LBAR    12.0N  38.6W   12.1N  42.6W   12.3N  47.2W   12.8N  51.9W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          44KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070816  1200   070817  1200   070818  1200   070819  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  52.7W   13.8N  60.2W   15.2N  65.0W   19.3N  68.5W
BAMD    13.1N  51.9W   14.4N  57.4W   17.2N  62.8W   21.0N  68.0W
BAMM    12.3N  53.4W   12.5N  59.5W   14.7N  63.5W   19.6N  67.7W
LBAR    12.9N  56.6W   11.5N  63.4W   16.4N  64.7W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          68KTS          83KTS          90KTS
DSHP        51KTS          68KTS          83KTS          90KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.0N LONCUR =  38.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  34.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  30.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


Still 30kts so this will not be upgraded most likely at 10am.

[punkyg]

Does any body think td4 looks horrible right now?

i say it looks alright.

[DESTRUCTION5]

No dean at 11:00..If we go by the Bamm Suite..

[Scorpion]

This is ridiculous.. why is it not getting named? T#'s support it... Quiksat supports it. Arlene had 3 centers circulating a broad low for crying out loud.

[HURAKAN]

Does any body think td4 looks horrible right now?

i say it looks alright.

For a sheared depression it looks really good.

[HURAKAN]

This is ridiculous.. why is it not getting named? T#'s support it... Quiksat supports it. Arlene had 3 centers circulating a broad low for crying out loud.

But Arlene had RECON. Maybe the NHC is seeing something we're not.

[Chacor]

This is ridiculous.. why is it not getting named? T#'s support it... Quiksat supports it. Arlene had 3 centers circulating a broad low for crying out loud.

AL, 04, 200708141145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1200N, 3860W, , 3, 35, 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, LL, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES12, CSC, T,
AL, 04, 200708141145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1230N, 3830W, , 3, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, LL, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINEMET= 2.0 PAT=

TAFB fixed at T2.0/2.0, which is 30 kt. Remember there is more than one centre that does Dvorak fixes.

[gatorcane]

Good morning folks.

I read the latest NHC discussion. The track is clearly worrisome for the islands and also for Florida IMHO. I credit those that say the track guidance is highly unreliable past 5 days but if you think about it the GFS has done very well with this system even 7-10 days ago when it started picking up on this and its the same model that has shown several runs of a strong system going through South Florida.

The scenario for a South Florida threat is very real at this point. The NHC mentions the possibility of a building ridge over the East Coast. That would cause this system to move WNW and get north of the Greater Antilles then eventually start to bend West again (Andrew did something similar). I am leaning towards this scenario at this point given we are in mid August and most of the models are not favoring a weakness at this point.

I am starting to finalize my preparations here in South Florida....

[HURAKAN]

I'm a weather enthusiastic but as I see TD4 right now 8:44 a.m. it look horrible... for sure surviving the shear. Dean won't show up at 10:30 a.m, may be 5:30.pm.

For a sheared depression it looks pretty decent. Very close to TS status.

[HURAKAN]

Good morning folks.

I read the latest NHC discussion. The track is clearly worrisome for the islands and also for Florida IMHO. I credit those that say the track guidance is highly unreliable past 5 days but if you think about it the GFS has done very well with this system even 7-10 days ago when it started picking up on this and its the same model that has shown several runs of a strong system going through South Florida.

The scenario for a South Florida threat is very real at this point. The NHC mentions the possibility of a building ridge over the East Coast. That would cause this system to move WNW and get north of the Greater Antilles then eventually start to bend West again (Andrew did something similar). I am leaning towards this scenario at this point given we are in mid August and most of the models are not favoring a weakness at this point.

I am starting to finalize my preparations here in South Florida....

Until the system clears 25N, for Miami, FL, it's a threat. Now, we just need to keep an eye on it and wait, that's all.