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EyELeSs1
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Re: Global Models for TD4

#1001 Postby EyELeSs1 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:38 am



06Z GFDL back directly over Antigua... not a fun sight!

Anyone willing to comment a little on intensity today and it's current organizational trend?
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Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#1002 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:39 am

Folks this is indeed the forcast by the national hurricane center with slow intensification at first followed by a more steady intensification as it runs into a more favorable environment as it approaches the islands.
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Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#1003 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:43 am

Nice visible loop of TD 4 and I also notice a low level vortex or circulation center about maybe 200 to 300 miles west of TD 4.
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Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#1004 Postby punkyg » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:45 am

Typhoon_Willie wrote:Nice visible loop of TD 4 and I also notice a low level vortex or circulation center about maybe 200 to 300 miles west of TD 4.
I can't see it cause i keep seeing the old loop.
when will they show the new one.
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#1005 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:46 am

Image

Image

Nice!!!
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Re:

#1006 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:47 am

Scorpion wrote:I don't understand why the NHC won't name it. Just because it is a little sheared doesnt make a difference... QUIKSAT sees 55 kt winds
They've not had the 10 o clock update yet. They are probably waiting to be sure convection remains strong. If it starts dying off then it wont get named.
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Re:

#1007 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:47 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image

Nice!!!


Link to the that animation please...Thanks Adrian
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#1008 Postby Fego » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:48 am

I'm a weather enthusiastic but as I see TD4 right now 8:44 a.m. it look horrible... for sure surviving the shear. Dean won't show up at 10:30 a.m, may be 5:30.pm.
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Re: Re:

#1009 Postby punkyg » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:49 am

windstorm99 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image

Nice!!!


Link to the that animation please...Thanks Adrian

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00704.html
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#1010 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:49 am

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Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#1011 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:51 am

Code: Select all

134
WHXX01 KWBC 141248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070814 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070814  1200   070815  0000   070815  1200   070816  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  38.6W   12.5N  41.4W   12.6N  44.9W   12.8N  48.6W
BAMD    12.0N  38.6W   12.2N  41.8W   12.3N  45.1W   12.6N  48.6W
BAMM    12.0N  38.6W   12.2N  41.9W   12.2N  45.7W   12.2N  49.5W
LBAR    12.0N  38.6W   12.1N  42.6W   12.3N  47.2W   12.8N  51.9W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          44KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070816  1200   070817  1200   070818  1200   070819  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  52.7W   13.8N  60.2W   15.2N  65.0W   19.3N  68.5W
BAMD    13.1N  51.9W   14.4N  57.4W   17.2N  62.8W   21.0N  68.0W
BAMM    12.3N  53.4W   12.5N  59.5W   14.7N  63.5W   19.6N  67.7W
LBAR    12.9N  56.6W   11.5N  63.4W   16.4N  64.7W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          68KTS          83KTS          90KTS
DSHP        51KTS          68KTS          83KTS          90KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.0N LONCUR =  38.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  34.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  30.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

Still 30kts so this will not be upgraded most likely at 10am.
Last edited by miamicanes177 on Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1012 Postby punkyg » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:52 am

Does any body think td4 looks horrible right now?

i say it looks alright.
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#1013 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:52 am

No dean at 11:00..If we go by the Bamm Suite.. 8-)
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Scorpion

#1014 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:54 am

This is ridiculous.. why is it not getting named? T#'s support it... Quiksat supports it. Arlene had 3 centers circulating a broad low for crying out loud.
Last edited by Scorpion on Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1015 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:54 am

punkyg wrote:Does any body think td4 looks horrible right now?

i say it looks alright.


Image

For a sheared depression it looks really good.
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Re:

#1016 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:55 am

Scorpion wrote:This is ridiculous.. why is it not getting named? T#'s support it... Quiksat supports it. Arlene had 3 centers circulating a broad low for crying out loud.


But Arlene had RECON. Maybe the NHC is seeing something we're not.
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Re:

#1017 Postby Chacor » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:56 am

Scorpion wrote:This is ridiculous.. why is it not getting named? T#'s support it... Quiksat supports it. Arlene had 3 centers circulating a broad low for crying out loud.


AL, 04, 200708141145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1200N, 3860W, , 3, 35, 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, LL, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES12, CSC, T,
AL, 04, 200708141145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1230N, 3830W, , 3, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, LL, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINEMET= 2.0 PAT=

TAFB fixed at T2.0/2.0, which is 30 kt. Remember there is more than one centre that does Dvorak fixes.
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Re: Global Models for TD4

#1018 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:57 am

Good morning folks.

I read the latest NHC discussion. The track is clearly worrisome for the islands and also for Florida IMHO. I credit those that say the track guidance is highly unreliable past 5 days but if you think about it the GFS has done very well with this system even 7-10 days ago when it started picking up on this and its the same model that has shown several runs of a strong system going through South Florida.

The scenario for a South Florida threat is very real at this point. The NHC mentions the possibility of a building ridge over the East Coast. That would cause this system to move WNW and get north of the Greater Antilles then eventually start to bend West again (Andrew did something similar). I am leaning towards this scenario at this point given we are in mid August and most of the models are not favoring a weakness at this point.

I am starting to finalize my preparations here in South Florida....
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1019 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:57 am

Fego wrote:I'm a weather enthusiastic but as I see TD4 right now 8:44 a.m. it look horrible... for sure surviving the shear. Dean won't show up at 10:30 a.m, may be 5:30.pm.


For a sheared depression it looks pretty decent. Very close to TS status.

Image
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Re: Global Models for TD4

#1020 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:59 am

gatorcane wrote:Good morning folks.

I read the latest NHC discussion. The track is clearly worrisome for the islands and also for Florida IMHO. I credit those that say the track guidance is highly unreliable past 5 days but if you think about it the GFS has done very well with this system even 7-10 days ago when it started picking up on this and its the same model that has shown several runs of a strong system going through South Florida.

The scenario for a South Florida threat is very real at this point. The NHC mentions the possibility of a building ridge over the East Coast. That would cause this system to move WNW and get north of the Greater Antilles then eventually start to bend West again (Andrew did something similar). I am leaning towards this scenario at this point given we are in mid August and most of the models are not favoring a weakness at this point.

I am starting to finalize my preparations here in South Florida....


Until the system clears 25N, for Miami, FL, it's a threat. Now, we just need to keep an eye on it and wait, that's all.
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