CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#1361 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:50 am

Well just when you think the GFS can't come up with a new one it has..LOL
0 likes   

destruction92
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 312
Joined: Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:43 pm

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1362 Postby destruction92 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:50 am

jschlitz wrote:
destruction92 wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Looks GOM bound as of now.


One common misconception/assumption I see on this board is that if a storm enters the carribean, it is automatically a Gulf of Mexico storm. Come on! Nothing could be farther from the truth. Just look at this track (which shows a storm entering the Southern Caribbean past the Windward Islands and almost touching South America and then hitting eastern Cuba and out fishing in the Atlantic Ocean). http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA


It's called massive ridge and in this pattern it's quite possible


"Massive ridge"? Please inform me where you see a massive ridge in NOAA's Surface Analysis map? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1363 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:51 am

204 hour:

Texas!
0 likes   

Extremecane
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:22 pm

#1364 Postby Extremecane » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:51 am

looks like it stalls in the gulf
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

#1365 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:51 am

0 likes   

User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1366 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:51 am

Next run it will have it making landfall in boston.
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1367 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:52 am

windstorm99 wrote:Next run it will have it making landfall in boston.



Did that already ..Its only option now is back to Africa..
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38094
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1368 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:53 am

Middle Texas coast again.

That's where 91L is headed it seems also...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif INLAND
Last edited by Brent on Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1369 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:53 am

windstorm99 wrote:Next run it will have it making landfall in boston.


Then it will turn towards Spain and enter the Mediterranean Sea and hit Greece.
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

#1370 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:53 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1371 Postby Agua » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:53 am

windstorm99 wrote:Next run it will have it making landfall in boston.


Very possible.
0 likes   

jwayne
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:33 pm

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1372 Postby jwayne » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:54 am

Brent wrote:Middle Texas coast again.

That's where 91L is headed it seems also...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif INLAND



Boy, now wouldn't that be one sick 8 day period!!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1373 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:54 am

Headed to the gulf huh? Even if this model run is bunk I can already sense that it is going to hit us in our pocketbook. The oil futures are gonna begin shooting up even with the thought of this getting into the gulf which means that we are all going to pay more at the gas pump in the next week. As if we didn't have enough expenses already! Such is life! LOL

SouthFLTropics
0 likes   

skufful
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 244
Joined: Sat Nov 01, 2003 6:37 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1374 Postby skufful » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:56 am

Be interesting to see if NHC changes the cone
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) - Discussions, Analysis and Sats

#1375 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:56 am

Sanibel wrote:I totally agree and just came on to post that same thing. That tight center with the eye in it reminds me of early strong hurricanes in formation.

That is not an eye. It is the result of convection dieing out. If this storm doesnt get another convection burst over the center before this one dies out completely, development could be hindered even further
0 likes   

User avatar
KFDM Meteorologist
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1314
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 9:52 pm
Location: Upper Texas Coast/Orange County

#1376 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:58 am

This model will jump from place to place through Friday/Saturday.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#1377 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:59 am

Once you get out to 300 hours, Dean is up in Minnesota which is a pretty far westerly track to be in the Great Lakes IMHO. At the same time, it's got some action off the US East Coast which would be of interest if this was a plausible scenario.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324l.gif
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re:

#1378 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:59 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:This model will jump from place to place through Friday/Saturday.


The problem is that you will have all the media (read:news), from Texas to FL in hysteria, as its the first real "threat" of the season, assuming TD5 to be/Erin doesn't take the headlines first!
0 likes   

GraysonDave
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:24 pm
Location: Grayson, GA

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1379 Postby GraysonDave » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:00 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Headed to the gulf huh? Even if this model run is bunk I can already sense that it is going to hit us in our pocketbook. The oil futures are gonna begin shooting up even with the thought of this getting into the gulf which means that we are all going to pay more at the gas pump in the next week. As if we didn't have enough expenses already! Such is life! LOL

SouthFLTropics


Natural gas futures went up about 3% during the course of the GFS rolling out. It'll fall back on the next model run. LOL.
0 likes   

destruction92
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 312
Joined: Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:43 pm

Re: T Storm Dean - Global Models=12z GFS run is being posted

#1380 Postby destruction92 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:02 pm

jschlitz wrote:
destruction92 wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Looks GOM bound as of now.


One common misconception/assumption I see on this board is that if a storm enters the carribean, it is automatically a Gulf of Mexico storm. Come on! Nothing could be farther from the truth. Just look at this track (which shows a storm entering the Southern Caribbean past the Windward Islands and almost touching South America and then hitting eastern Cuba and out fishing in the Atlantic Ocean). http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA


It's called massive ridge and in this pattern it's quite possible


"Massive ridge"? Please inform me where you see a massive ridge in NOAA's Surface Analysis map? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest