INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Tireman4]

And the tropical rollercoaster in the Gulf takes off.

[btangy]

AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 0, 225N, 898W, 25
AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 12, 235N, 920W, 30
AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 24, 249N, 943W, 35
AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 36, 262N, 971W, 40
AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 48, 269N, 991W, 25

This is odd. The NHC has started issuing official track and intensity forecasts in their ATCF file. I don't know if this is a flub or whether they are categorical on development, but this is the first time I've seen this happen. I'm assuming it's a mistake for now.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_036l.gif

12z NAM 36 hours. NAM is definitely tightening up the system as previously progged (FWIW of course).

Steve

Nam looks like it has moved a bit south of it's last run...

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_036l.gif

12z NAM 36 hours. NAM is definitely tightening up the system as previously progged (FWIW of course).

Steve

Nam looks like it has moved a bit south of it's last run...

Nope. The new NAM is actually showing it in about the same spot as during it's last run...perhaps a tad further north. Either way, I actually think the NAM scenario looks pretty good for this system.

[cpdaman]

marcane73 according to the 14:15 utc time on your infared pic, that is over 2 hours old

i think the nhc floaters are having problems updating

[Starburst]

I lost my roof with hurricane Claudette in 2003, a huge tree fell on my car from the neighbor's yard, had no electricity for 5 days, and to top it all the worst my home owner's insurance went up 50% was not a good experience I am not looking forward to this.

[Steve]

>>I lost my roof with hurricane Claudette in 2003, a huge tree fell on my car from the neighbor's yard, had no electricity for 5 days, and to top it all the worst my home owner's insurance went up 50% was not a good experience I am not looking forward to this.

Look on the bright side - you got a new roof and a new car and you only had to pay 50% more for homeowner's insurance. It's going to take Texas joining us in LA/MS/AL/FL paying 2-3 times what you are used to paying for the government to really pay attention to our insurance plight. Mississippi Congressman Gene Taylor had introduced a bill to add wind and hail (being dropped in most homeowner's polices which are quickly becoming "fire insurance" IMHO) to the National Flood Insurance Program. I'm not sure what the status of that bill is, but the Federal Government is going to have to ease the burden on us if it wants us to be homeowners. There are a few different ways they could work it, but they gotta do something.

IMO of course.

Steve

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Convection is Exploding over the center!!! Look at the dark brown showing up. Looks like we have a TS IMO

[lrak]

Floater is not updating.

[Houstonia]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141453
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE GULF RIGHT AROUND 22.8N AND 90.0W...OR
ABOUT 530 MILES SE OF GALVESTON. RECONNAISSANCE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM ERIN MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY...OUR FUTURE FORECAST
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WE
ALREADY HAVE HIGHER POPS FOR OUR AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE ON IN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PROGGED BY SOME MODELS TO EXCEED 2.50 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
SOMEWHERE IN A 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE...COULD BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
DOWN SOUTH. WILL ADDRESS ALL OF THIS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
42

[HouTXmetro]

Mine updated and it shows a frightening scene. Actually I used the GOM Loop which is now up to date.

[Extremecane]

mine hasnt

[jwayne]

[quote="HouTXmetro"]:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Convection is Exploding over the center!!! Look at the dark brown showing up. Looks like we have a TS IMO[/quote]


Has the center been pulled underneath that convection or is it still out exposed to the sw? Man, if it gets pulled underneath that, all bets are off on intensification IMO (disclaimer...I'm not very smart...).

[HouTXmetro]

mine hasnt

Use the GOM loop instead.

[JtSmarts]

Anyone have any guesses on what they think recon will find?

[Aric Dunn]

recon is in the air flying

[Starburst]

can someone give me an up to date link none of my links are updated

[chadtm80]

can someone give me an up to date link none of my links are updated

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[cpdaman]

who usually does the recon decoding and updates

recon is great we get real time date in a developing tropical system

where is recon flying out of ? i.e when will it reach the storm

[JonathanBelles]

Why arent satellites over 91l working? I tried the floater and the GOM one, they both get to 10% and stop loading. I thought it was supposed to be fixed by now.