Steve wrote:destruction,
Your profile doesn't give your location, but you've been fighting that east coast battle for a couple of days (or so it seems).
Forget the trough. What's behind a trough or a front? A large dome of high pressure. That dome has been forecast in various runs to link up with subtropical ridging in the Atlantic. Unless a trough was to kick it up and out, what's behind that trough will absolutely NOT do so. It, as it always is with troughs and fronts coming south or southeast through the U.S. and A., an issue of timing.
Steve
"What's in a trough?", you say. EVERYTHING! It's presence or lack of it will determine how strong ridging will be...ultimately affecting Dean's track. A trough does not need to "Kick it up and out"...it just needs to cause a weakness or erosion enough to cause Dean to move wnw.
Current models are predicting a Dominican Republic landfall while Dean is moving northwesterly....eventually into the Atlantic Ocean near the Southern extreme Bahamas. Now is that GOM?