CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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destruction92
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Re:

#1581 Postby destruction92 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:04 pm

Steve wrote:destruction,

Your profile doesn't give your location, but you've been fighting that east coast battle for a couple of days (or so it seems).

Forget the trough. What's behind a trough or a front? A large dome of high pressure. That dome has been forecast in various runs to link up with subtropical ridging in the Atlantic. Unless a trough was to kick it up and out, what's behind that trough will absolutely NOT do so. It, as it always is with troughs and fronts coming south or southeast through the U.S. and A., an issue of timing.

Steve


"What's in a trough?", you say. EVERYTHING! It's presence or lack of it will determine how strong ridging will be...ultimately affecting Dean's track. A trough does not need to "Kick it up and out"...it just needs to cause a weakness or erosion enough to cause Dean to move wnw.

Current models are predicting a Dominican Republic landfall while Dean is moving northwesterly....eventually into the Atlantic Ocean near the Southern extreme Bahamas. Now is that GOM?
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panhandlehurricane79

Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1582 Postby panhandlehurricane79 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:05 pm

i heard dean is suppose to come into the gulf and hit the north coast.
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#1583 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:05 pm

punkyg wrote:http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Well as you can see in the loop the sun is starting to set over Dean.
i say around 7pm it will start reforming its convection.

Its already started. A small pop of convection has formed directly on top of the center, I think. It is easily discernable on NRL's visible loop
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1584 Postby destruction92 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:06 pm

panhandlehurricane79 wrote:i heard dean is suppose to come into the gulf and hit the north coast.


Yeah, that's what the Euro is saying after initial landfall in SE FLA.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1585 Postby SCHawkFan » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:07 pm

.................
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#1586 Postby punkyg » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:08 pm

If i were you guys i would forget the models until thursday, because its gonna continue going back and forth.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1587 Postby hial2 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:09 pm

destruction92 wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Yes i have seen it!



Before making a one-liner statement such as "GOM!!!", I think it would be better if you gave some valid reasoning behind your interjection. You are a meteorologist, so I am sure you can give us more information than just an open-ended one-word statement.


When computers are left "on" and unguarded,anyone unauthorized can type anything on it and press "enter"...
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1588 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:09 pm

We shouldn't worry over the long range guidance. The latest Euro solution seems suspect - the 500 mbar configuration (strong positively tilted shortwave trough/SE Canada low) depicted in the run would support an East Coast (north of FL) or Caribbean/MX strike, especially because of the low over the Gulf of Alaska and downstream West Coast ridge/upper-air CONUS pattern. I find it difficult to believe (assuming that scenario verifies) that a deepening TC would ignore the weaker ridging (weakness) to its north and cross southern FL on a WNW path. It would present a largely synoptically difficult setup, unless the TC is weaker. Additionally, the speed of the trough would certainly influence a northward movement east of Florida (ala Floyd) to the Carolinas. It will be interesting if this run signals a weakness or FL bias in the Euro, which could give more credence to the GFS and other models. Additionally, many models (including the GFS) could have misread the upper-air pattern. I'm not making a judgement on the future path of Dean, but I'm making a point about this recent run and its handle on the synoptics.
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Steve
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#1589 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:09 pm

I never said it was going into the Gulf of Mexico. I have NO IDEA. I've been more focused on 91L today except for a few forrays here and there into the Dean forums.

>>"What's in a trough?", you say. EVERYTHING! It's presence or lack of it will determine how strong ridging will be...ultimately affecting Dean's track.

And that was my point. You posted that blurb from the NWS about the cool, fall-like air. That's going to be quite a mass of high pressure of Canadian (= stable) origin. If the models and if the WPAC ridging are telling the story, it's going to be somewhat N-S oriented before tilting and joining up with the offshore high pressure in the Atlantic.

>>A trough does not need to "Kick it up and out"...it just needs to cause a weakness or erosion enough to cause Dean to move wnw.

That would be Dean feeling the trough. The trough you posted the link to and I referenced above isn't some boundary or slight weakness. It's probably a strong front considering the cold air behind it. It could slightly influence (temporarily only) some WNW or even NW climbing. But it would have to dip down below the latitude of Dean in front (west) of it in order for Dean to recurve. The southwesterly flow in front of that descending trough would save the US and A. Anything else is a blip or a block. I'm next to positive on that too (though I'm not making the call as to what happens when it does come down).

Steve
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1590 Postby Acral » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:11 pm

The models are still sliding all over the place. The Euro is the flavor of the hour right now. In a couple of ours it's be back to Texas, then talking about the east coast, then central america/mexico, then gulf coast...

:double:
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1591 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:14 pm

Image

A lot of dry air to the north and west
Last edited by miamicanes177 on Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1592 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:15 pm

I think all the models should have a disclaimer on them that says "Models beyond 72 hours are for entertainment purposes only!" LOL
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1593 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:16 pm

panhandlehurricane79 wrote:i heard dean is suppose to come into the gulf and hit the north coast.


Yes one model showed that... but it's also showed a completely different track on every run. It could go anywhere at this point, from Mexico to recurving and missing the U.S. entirely. There's not even a certainty where it will track across the Lesser Antilles which is only 4 days from now.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models

#1594 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:16 pm

What and when are the next set of runs?

BTW....media starting to hone in on Dean...Cue up Katrina tapes!
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Opal storm

Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1595 Postby Opal storm » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:17 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:Image

A lot of dry air to the north and west
Wow. Now I'm really starting to wonder if the models have overhyped the strength. It looks like its about to get bone dry of convection.
Last edited by Opal storm on Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1596 Postby punkyg » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:17 pm

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#1597 Postby stormchazer » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:17 pm

Its all well and good to discuss the models at 10 days out, but right now, Dean is struggling and may not even make it to the Western Atlantic. Okay that maybe an over-statement but I think we need to sit back and discuss the runs and quit fighting over who gets the honor of a disaster hitting their shores. I appears the models are having a little trouble with short-term intensity, much less longterm tracks.

Of course that just my opinion.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1598 Postby Acral » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:18 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I think all the models should have a disclaimer on them that says "Models beyond 72 hours are for entertainment purposes only!" LOL


I like it!

Image
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#1599 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:19 pm

18Z GFS at 5:30 Central time.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1600 Postby HUC » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:19 pm

Dry air,but seems that cb are now developping,for the first time in two curved band north of the center!!!!
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