CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[storms in NC]

I thought He was slowing down. now 18 better than 21 that is for sure.

INITIAL MOTION OF DEAN IS 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT...A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE LAST ADVISORY.

[Beach0612]

Looks like its going to go right over my head here

[Derek Ortt]

I dont speculate on landfalls this far in advance... except maybe by saying I favor from Martinique south

[KBBOCA]

The current track has shifted south by about two islands in the Lesser Antilles. Before it was Dominica and then St. Croix and PR under the gun. Now it looks to be aiming more at Martinique (as a Cat 1, which is better than this morning) and then headed to Hispanola (Dominican Rep. / Haiti). Hispanola could of course kill the thing, so over all, this is a better track in many ways than what we saw earlier.

[HurryKane]

Wow...Didn't Camille go east of NOLA?

Yeah. made landfall somewhere near Biloxi. Camille, first storm to still be a TD in Illinois IIRC.

Pass Christian, to be exact-ish.

[meteorologyman]

Is there any eddies out in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf, that we need to be concern of, that's one of the reasons Katrina became a monster in 2005

[jimvb]

I can get ECMWF. It shows Dean to be a 4 - hitting southern Florida, then the panhandle of Florida and Mobile area.

[jhamps10]

Is there any eddies out in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf, that we need to be concern of, that's one of the reasons Katrina became a monster in 2005

Yeah in the Gulf, about in the same areas as in 05, only a bit larger, and warmer too. Eddy goes almost to the coast.

Atlantic, or caribbean I don't know.

[Derek Ortt]

10,000 people can also be killed if this strikes Hispaniola as a major, especially if it goes across Port Au Prince, Haiti (or any part of Haiti for that matter)

[x-y-no]

10,000 people can also be killed if this strikes Hispaniola as a major, especially if it goes across Port Au Prince, Haiti (or any part of Haiti for that matter)

Yes, a major would be a huge disaster for Haiti and the DR - lots of people there who are too poor to have any ability to protect themselves in such an event.

[Scorpion]

Can't imagine what would happen if the WRF verified... 900 mb into Haiti? Most of the houses are quite flimsy.. they would be levelled without a doubt.

[canegrl04]

Is there any eddies out in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf, that we need to be concern of, that's one of the reasons Katrina became a monster in 2005

Yeah in the Gulf, about in the same areas as in 05, only a bit larger, and warmer too. Eddy goes almost to the coast.

Atlantic, or caribbean I don't know.

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z GFS at 5:30 Central time.

4:30 Central

Working now...

[jhamps10]

Can't imagine what would happen if the WRF verified... 900 mb into Haiti? Most of the houses are quite flimsy.. they would be levelled without a doubt.

yeah, if it was a 900 into haiti, then we would have a disaster a lot worse than Katrina EVER was. But I look at this on the good side too, and forgive me for saying this, but a 900 mb hitting haiti would seriously hurt this thing, and would help the US.

[KBBOCA]

I didn't mean for my comment about Hispaniola having the possibility of "killing" the storm / therefore a "better" track for the ConUS to in any way minimize the danger to those in Haiti / DR. I had friends who did relief work in Haiti following Jeanne, which was only a Cat1 and killed thousands. I know all too well how vulnerable Haiti and the DR are.

Apologies for sounding insensitive.

[windstorm99]

Accuweather's Thinking...

[Wx_Warrior]

18z firing up

[storms in NC]

Can't imagine what would happen if the WRF verified... 900 mb into Haiti? Most of the houses are quite flimsy.. they would be levelled without a doubt.

yeah, if it was a 900 into haiti, then we would have a disaster a lot worse than Katrina EVER was. But I look at this on the good side too, and forgive me for saying this, but a 900 mb hitting haiti would seriously hurt this thing, and would help the US.

Haiti is not that big. For if a cat-3-5 would go over it would do nothing to the storm.JMO

[Wx_Warrior]

18z firing up

[jhamps10]

Accuweather's Thinking...

looks awfully close to the 11AM forecast.

Sure looks like they made that on the fly using the 5PM position, and the 11AM forecast.