INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
A 25 mph TD dropping 3 or 5 inches of rain in 24 to 36 hours and then moving out would do wonders for my orange trees and lawn. This 100ºF (38ºC) temps are a little much for me.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
how come none of this is being posting in our recon thread?Ed Mahmoud wrote:21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
Brent wrote:This thing needs to hurry... it's running out of time.
I have to disagree. It still has a lot of time.
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
Bouy to the north starting to show pressure fall
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
Extremeweatherguy wrote:how come none of this is being posting in our recon thread?Ed Mahmoud wrote:21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.
URNT11 KNHC 142109
97779 21094 30241 89718 02400 16021 26259 /0007
41520
RMK AF305 01EEA INVEST OB 17
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:how come none of this is being posting in our recon thread?Ed Mahmoud wrote:21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.
URNT11 KNHC 142109
97779 21094 30241 89718 02400 16021 26259 /0007
41520
RMK AF305 01EEA INVEST OB 17
Or are you saying I posted this in the wrong thread. Sorry if that was out of line.
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Re: Re:
vaffie wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:its taking to much time.. everyone hour it does not become better organized gives it a smaller chance of becoming anything but a minimal TS.
I disagree--for once, Aric. The act of reforming to the northeast gives it much more time and allows for greater pressure falls and more ideal strengthening conditions. Already reformation has given it an extra 12 hours--it was supposed to make landfall on Wednesday night--now the NAM is pushing it to Thursday morning--the next run may make it early Thursday afternoon, and if reformation continues, it may not make landfall until Thursday night or even Friday morning. That's possibly an extra 24 hours of ideal strengthening conditions--the kind that could result in an additional 1 mb pressure fall/hr. Right now--the 18Z NAM is progging it for landfall on Thursday morning as a 984 mb system. If that was delayed further by 12-24 hours, we could be looking at anywhere from a 960-975 mb system. Category 3 territory! So this is very bad. I'm certainly not calling for it, but Rita was just to the north of this area, and under the most ideal conditions, it's pressure was falling at its peak at 7 mb/hour. Same with Charlie. It's just worth keeping in mind
everything is possible.. but sometimes systems just dont get there act together.. tonight will be a good chance for it. but if by morning it has not changed or is only slightly better organized than i would say no to a hurricane
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:how come none of this is being posting in our recon thread?Ed Mahmoud wrote:21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.
URNT11 KNHC 142109
97779 21094 30241 89718 02400 16021 26259 /0007
41520
RMK AF305 01EEA INVEST OB 17
Or are you saying I posted this in the wrong thread. Sorry if that was out of line.
If this is ok to mention, just saw 28 knot wind at flight level...
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
No I wasn't yelling at you, I was just wondering what happened to the recon updates that we were getting in the recon thread up until a half hour ago.Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Or are you saying I posted this in the wrong thread. Sorry if that was out of line.
update: NVM, they just restarted.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- lrak
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted

What about the new convection coming off the peninsula? Is that indicative of being close to a LLC, like the blob to the North?
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
Looks like advisories could start at anytime... apparently according to the TWO the circulation wasn't completely closed, if it can't get closed with THAT satellite appearance I'll be surprised.
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
With recon out there and conditions being so close, a STS would not be surprising. Not sure if they would do immediate watches/warnings or wait till 10.
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
Stratosphere747 wrote:With recon out there and conditions being so close, a STS would not be surprising. Not sure if they would do immediate watches/warnings or wait till 10.
Possible the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement.
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
It looks to be moving more northwest, but the projected path on the homepage shows it moving into northern mexico.
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- lrak
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted
I still see a good LLC and 23N 90W, that blob coming off Mexico may rap around it tonight and the other blob in the central gulf will dissipate?
Last edited by lrak on Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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