CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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miamicanes177
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1961 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:38 pm

I hope this does not hit Haiti. If Dean hits Haiti at the strength the HWRF is forecasting you would have many thousands dead and likely everyone there.
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Re:

#1962 Postby SaveNola » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:40 pm

kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK." :eek: :D


WIMPY!!! Dallas NWS forecaster is a little braver...

AS FOR TROPICAL STORM DEAN...
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT DEAN
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM DECIDING WHEN TO TURN DEAN NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AN EAST COAST PATH BUT HIGHER FOR
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORY
...CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
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Re:

#1963 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:40 pm

kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK." :eek: :D


Image
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Re: Re:

#1964 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:41 pm

SaveNola wrote:
kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK." :eek: :D


WIMPY!!! Dallas NWS forecaster is a little braver...

AS FOR TROPICAL STORM DEAN...
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT DEAN
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM DECIDING WHEN TO TURN DEAN NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AN EAST COAST PATH BUT HIGHER FOR
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORY
...CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.


WOW, WOW, WOW!!! He should get the MBF trophy as the "Most Brave Forecaster."
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1965 Postby fsusurfer » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:42 pm

hahahahahahahahaha
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1966 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:43 pm

NWS Melbourne Florida:
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER FOUR IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
THREATEN A PORTION OF THE U.S. MAINLAND BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...BUILDING
SWELLS AND INCREASING RIP CURRENTS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Clear as mud...
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#1967 Postby swimaway19 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:45 pm

I was looking at the GFDL model for 18z and it states that the max 35m winds are 51.2 knots (in the Sea Level Pressure run) Is this accurate for the wind at sea level too?
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Re: Re:

#1968 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:46 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK." :eek: :D


Image


:roflmao:

*presses it* :eek:
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1969 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:46 pm

What are greg_kfdm_tv thoughts on Dean?
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#1970 Postby kranki » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:47 pm

Well, if the Dallas forecaster is correct, then we will probably get hit. However, generally that does not mean that we will get more than TD/TS stuff here, but you never know. That being said, I started doing my initial hurricane preps yesterday. No shutters, yet, just picking up the garage, etc. Just in case...
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean Global Models

#1971 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:47 pm

what time are the next runs? 10:30 central?
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1972 Postby Praxus » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:48 pm

Man if the models keep it landfalling in Louisiana when it first turns into a cane, the media will have a mass freak out.
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1973 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:48 pm

:uarrow: Excuse me folks but this may turn into a very serious situation for the people that live in the Caribbean islands.It is not something to have fun with.
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1974 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:49 pm

Fox News (natl) have already showed Katrina footage.... :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: Re:

#1975 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:50 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
SaveNola wrote:
kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK." :eek: :D


WIMPY!!! Dallas NWS forecaster is a little braver...

AS FOR TROPICAL STORM DEAN...
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT DEAN
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM DECIDING WHEN TO TURN DEAN NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AN EAST COAST PATH BUT HIGHER FOR
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORY
...CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.


WOW, WOW, WOW!!! He should get the MBF trophy as the "Most Brave Forecaster."



If this forecast bears out,all I have to sy is,I guess NOLA qill get their first post Katrina test on preparedness
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1976 Postby Flakeys » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:51 pm

I guess I'll have to knock the wasp nests off my shutter tracks just in case...
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1977 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:51 pm

Praxus wrote:Man if the models keep it landfalling in Louisiana when it first turns into a cane, the media will have a mass freak out.


Too late. It got quite a bit of coverage today, they interrupted with "Breaking News" when it was first upgraded this morning.
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

#1978 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:53 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:Lets hope Dean never makes it to the US.This one has cat 5 written all over it :eek:


And we all can blame you for it and whomever it hits and and how baldy it does....I am holding you personally responsible for "Dean" 2007 :lol: :lol: :lol:


Don't shoot the messenger :lol:
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#1979 Postby kranki » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:53 pm

cycloneye, I take them all seriously and feel for the people outside the US since they have so much less and generally very little govt support when bad things happen.
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Re:

#1980 Postby SaveNola » Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:54 pm

kranki wrote:cycloneye, I take them all seriously and feel for the people outside the US since they have so much less and generally very little govt support when bad things happen.


Kind of like New Orleanians.
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