CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar
I hope this does not hit Haiti. If Dean hits Haiti at the strength the HWRF is forecasting you would have many thousands dead and likely everyone there.
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Re:
kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK."![]()
WIMPY!!! Dallas NWS forecaster is a little braver...
AS FOR TROPICAL STORM DEAN...
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT DEAN
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM DECIDING WHEN TO TURN DEAN NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AN EAST COAST PATH BUT HIGHER FOR
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORY...CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
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Re:
kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK."![]()

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Re: Re:
SaveNola wrote:kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK."![]()
WIMPY!!! Dallas NWS forecaster is a little braver...
AS FOR TROPICAL STORM DEAN...
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT DEAN
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM DECIDING WHEN TO TURN DEAN NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AN EAST COAST PATH BUT HIGHER FOR
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORY...CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WOW, WOW, WOW!!! He should get the MBF trophy as the "Most Brave Forecaster."
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar
NWS Melbourne Florida:
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER FOUR IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
THREATEN A PORTION OF THE U.S. MAINLAND BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...BUILDING
SWELLS AND INCREASING RIP CURRENTS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Clear as mud...
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER FOUR IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
THREATEN A PORTION OF THE U.S. MAINLAND BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...BUILDING
SWELLS AND INCREASING RIP CURRENTS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER
ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Clear as mud...
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar
What are greg_kfdm_tv thoughts on Dean?
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Well, if the Dallas forecaster is correct, then we will probably get hit. However, generally that does not mean that we will get more than TD/TS stuff here, but you never know. That being said, I started doing my initial hurricane preps yesterday. No shutters, yet, just picking up the garage, etc. Just in case...
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar
Man if the models keep it landfalling in Louisiana when it first turns into a cane, the media will have a mass freak out.
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- cycloneye
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar

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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar
Fox News (natl) have already showed Katrina footage....




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Re: Re:
HURAKAN wrote:SaveNola wrote:kranki wrote:My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK."![]()
WIMPY!!! Dallas NWS forecaster is a little braver...
AS FOR TROPICAL STORM DEAN...
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT DEAN
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM DECIDING WHEN TO TURN DEAN NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AN EAST COAST PATH BUT HIGHER FOR
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORY...CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WOW, WOW, WOW!!! He should get the MBF trophy as the "Most Brave Forecaster."
If this forecast bears out,all I have to sy is,I guess NOLA qill get their first post Katrina test on preparedness
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar
I guess I'll have to knock the wasp nests off my shutter tracks just in case...
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar
Praxus wrote:Man if the models keep it landfalling in Louisiana when it first turns into a cane, the media will have a mass freak out.
Too late. It got quite a bit of coverage today, they interrupted with "Breaking News" when it was first upgraded this morning.
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Re: TS Dean (p. 46) 00z models, 45kts, mov W 15kts, 1000 mbar
jaxfladude wrote:canegrl04 wrote:Lets hope Dean never makes it to the US.This one has cat 5 written all over it
And we all can blame you for it and whomever it hits and and how baldy it does....I am holding you personally responsible for "Dean" 2007![]()
![]()
Don't shoot the messenger

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