Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[gotoman38]

Will they approach from the SE now?

Probably - the eye is around 15N 65.75W

[M_0331]

The nautical mile is 6076.115 feet => 6076.115/5280 = 1.15 mile per hour. So that is where 1.15 comes from these who don't know.
Eddie

[pojo]

2am ET I think.

they are scheduled for the 00z and 06z intercepts... they should get back around 4am.

Thanks for your knowledge Pojo! When are you on station again?

we are here at Det1 in St. Croix... Either Mon or Tues will be back at Keesler flying out of there.... typically we start flying out of Keesler when the storm is roughly halfway between St. Croix and Keesler.

[gotoman38]

we are here at Det1 in St. Croix... Either Mon or Tues will be back at Keesler flying out of there.... typically we start flying out of Keesler when the storm is roughly halfway between St. Croix and Keesler.

so... looks like on this track somewhere west of the Caymans then?

[KBBOCA]

Just noticed a new tool at Weather Underground. They're plotting the hurricane hunter data. Cool

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... hd#a_topad

[pojo]

we are here at Det1 in St. Croix... Either Mon or Tues will be back at Keesler flying out of there.... typically we start flying out of Keesler when the storm is roughly halfway between St. Croix and Keesler.

so... looks like on this track somewhere west of the Caymans then?

Jamaica head on.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure now 933mb according to extrapolation...

[timeflow]

that's how we show the public WHAT track we actually take. Its called an Alpha pattern (it looks like a giant X)...

Thanks for your reply pojo. It's very interesting watching this, and even better to get feedback direct from a Hurricane Hunter. This Alpha pattern would seem to be complete once all four quadrants have been penetrated. When this is reached, would it also complete the mission, or does the process continue, x over x, as long as is necessary or as long as fuel and safety permit? I seem to remember back in Wilma the pressure could have progressed even deeper than what was last recorded, but the mission ultimately had to end.

It's watch and learn on this tonight. The SW pass-through later will catch the NE from the other side, which is typcially where the fastest winds should be found. I have not even looked at the 11pm update yet...

[gotoman38]

we are here at Det1 in St. Croix... Either Mon or Tues will be back at Keesler flying out of there.... typically we start flying out of Keesler when the storm is roughly halfway between St. Croix and Keesler.

so... looks like on this track somewhere west of the Caymans then?

Jamaica head on.

Thanks - I hope you and all on StCroix are well - and all the Hunters safe in our mission.

[Vortex]

weather underground on their recon info is now indicating 932

[CrazyC83]

weather underground on their recon info is now indicating 932

The vortex has yet to come in and the lowest pressure extrapolated was 932.7 which rounds to 933mb.

[pojo]

that's how we show the public WHAT track we actually take. Its called an Alpha pattern (it looks like a giant X)...

Thanks for your reply pojo. It's very interesting watching this, and even better to get feedback direct from a Hurricane Hunter. This Alpha pattern would seem to be complete once all four quadrants have been penetrated. When this is reached, would it also complete the mission, or does the process continue, x over x, as long as is necessary or as long as fuel and safety permit? I seem to remember back in Wilma the pressure could have progressed even deeper than what was last recorded, but the mission ultimately had to end.

It's watch and learn on this tonight. The SW pass-through later will catch the NE from the other side, which is typcially where the fastest winds should be found. I have not even looked at the 11pm update yet...

They continue the alpha pattern to collect the data as long as NHC needs them out there. Typically, it is for 2 scheduled fixes.... for instance the aircraft out there now is getting the 00z and 06z fix on Dean. On rare occasions (when the storm is approaching US) we will keep the aircraft out for 3 fixes.... they are called 3hourly..... for instance.. Katrina we flew 12z, 15z, and 18z on one aircraft.

CARCAH limits our flying to a maximum of 14 hours because crew safety. That is the MAJOR factor. Safety is our primary concern.

Wilma was different...during crew briefing, NHC noted Wilma as a Cat1... we flew Wilma for the 2 scheduled fixes and received 882mb on the sonde (with SEVERAL missing temps and winds). The crew had to quickly all ATC and request the flight altitude of FL100/700mbs because Wilma was TOO strong to fly at FL050/850mbs.

Typically in Northern Hemisphere storms the NE Quadrant is the Strongest quadrant.... that is where 5302 found 126kts ~145mph and NHC upgraded Dean to Cat4.

[CrazyC83]

Vortex in - 935mb.

491
URNT12 KNHC 180328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/02:58:10Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
065 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 126 kt
E. 148 deg 007 nm
F. 245 deg 117 kt
G. 141 deg 005 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50Z

[pojo]

Thanks - I hope you and all on StCroix are well - and all the Hunters safe in our mission.

Keep your fingers crossed for the plane out right now. St. Croix has had sustained at 35mph all day gusting to 45mph... rain shower on and off.

[gotoman38]

Wilma was different...during crew briefing, NHC noted Wilma as a Cat1... we flew Wilma for the 2 scheduled fixes and received 882mb on the sonde (with SEVERAL missing temps and winds). The crew had to quickly all ATC and request the flight altitude of FL100/700mbs because Wilma was TOO strong to fly at FL050/850mbs.

Typically in Northern Hemisphere storms the NE Quadrant is the Strongest quadrant.... that is where 5302 found 126kts ~145mph and NHC upgraded Dean to Cat4.

WHOA! Were you on that flight?

[gotoman38]

that's how we show the public WHAT track we actually take. Its called an Alpha pattern (it looks like a giant X)...

Thanks for your reply pojo. It's very interesting watching this, and even better to get feedback direct from a Hurricane Hunter. This Alpha pattern would seem to be complete once all four quadrants have been penetrated. When this is reached, would it also complete the mission, or does the process continue, x over x, as long as is necessary or as long as fuel and safety permit? I seem to remember back in Wilma the pressure could have progressed even deeper than what was last recorded, but the mission ultimately had to end.

It's watch and learn on this tonight. The SW pass-through later will catch the NE from the other side, which is typcially where the fastest winds should be found. I have not even looked at the 11pm update yet...

Here's the pattern:

The RED was the complete pass earlier today - green is the one in progress.

[timeflow]

Wilma was different...during crew briefing, NHC noted Wilma as a Cat1... we flew Wilma for the 2 scheduled fixes and received 882mb on the sonde (with SEVERAL missing temps and winds). The crew had to quickly all ATC and request the flight altitude of FL100/700mbs because Wilma was TOO strong to fly at FL050/850mbs.

Typically in Northern Hemisphere storms the NE Quadrant is the Strongest quadrant.... that is where 5302 found 126kts ~145mph and NHC upgraded Dean to Cat4.

WHOA! Were you on that flight?

Wow, that sounds like one legendary flight! One can only imagine the reaction on board as those numbers came back... Out there in the pitch black of night, deep in and above the heart of the Sea, with raging unpredicatable winds, and no safe harbour... right into the 5nm pinhole eye of Wilma. That had to be something else.

[senorpepr]

They were to have a new version this year but pojo said not all planes are equiped yet with it. Here is some more info on it senorpepr. And congrats on the growing family!

that is correct.. not all planes are equipped with the SFMR.

Ahh... so that's what SWS = ###KTS stands for... surface wind speeds as indicated by SFMR?

[CrazyC83]

The "magic" number for a Cat 5 on the flight-level winds is probably 155 kt.

[RL3AO]

154 kt FL 928 mb extrapolated...waiting for VDM.