Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

Re:

#181 Postby gotoman38 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:44 pm

RL3AO wrote:Will they approach from the SE now?


Probably - the eye is around 15N 65.75W
0 likes   

User avatar
M_0331
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:05 pm
Location: SE COAST, SC

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#182 Postby M_0331 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:45 pm

The nautical mile is 6076.115 feet => 6076.115/5280 = 1.15 mile per hour. So that is where 1.15 comes from these who don't know.
Eddie
0 likes   

pojo
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 8016
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:16 pm
Location: Houston

Re: Re:

#183 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:47 pm

gotoman38 wrote:
pojo wrote:
RL3AO wrote:2am ET I think.


they are scheduled for the 00z and 06z intercepts... they should get back around 4am.


Thanks for your knowledge Pojo! When are you on station again?

we are here at Det1 in St. Croix... Either Mon or Tues will be back at Keesler flying out of there.... typically we start flying out of Keesler when the storm is roughly halfway between St. Croix and Keesler.
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

Re: Re:

#184 Postby gotoman38 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:53 pm

pojo wrote:we are here at Det1 in St. Croix... Either Mon or Tues will be back at Keesler flying out of there.... typically we start flying out of Keesler when the storm is roughly halfway between St. Croix and Keesler.

so... looks like on this track somewhere west of the Caymans then?
0 likes   

KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

#185 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:54 pm

Just noticed a new tool at Weather Underground. They're plotting the hurricane hunter data. Cool

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... hd#a_topad
0 likes   

pojo
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 8016
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:16 pm
Location: Houston

Re: Re:

#186 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:57 pm

gotoman38 wrote:
pojo wrote:we are here at Det1 in St. Croix... Either Mon or Tues will be back at Keesler flying out of there.... typically we start flying out of Keesler when the storm is roughly halfway between St. Croix and Keesler.

so... looks like on this track somewhere west of the Caymans then?


Jamaica head on.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34006
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#187 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:04 pm

Pressure now 933mb according to extrapolation...
0 likes   

User avatar
timeflow
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 99
Age: 53
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:48 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#188 Postby timeflow » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:17 pm

that's how we show the public WHAT track we actually take. Its called an Alpha pattern (it looks like a giant X)...


Thanks for your reply pojo. It's very interesting watching this, and even better to get feedback direct from a Hurricane Hunter. This Alpha pattern would seem to be complete once all four quadrants have been penetrated. When this is reached, would it also complete the mission, or does the process continue, x over x, as long as is necessary or as long as fuel and safety permit? I seem to remember back in Wilma the pressure could have progressed even deeper than what was last recorded, but the mission ultimately had to end.

It's watch and learn on this tonight. The SW pass-through later will catch the NE from the other side, which is typcially where the fastest winds should be found. I have not even looked at the 11pm update yet...
Last edited by timeflow on Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

Re: Re:

#189 Postby gotoman38 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:19 pm

pojo wrote:
gotoman38 wrote:
pojo wrote:we are here at Det1 in St. Croix... Either Mon or Tues will be back at Keesler flying out of there.... typically we start flying out of Keesler when the storm is roughly halfway between St. Croix and Keesler.

so... looks like on this track somewhere west of the Caymans then?


Jamaica head on.

Thanks - I hope you and all on StCroix are well - and all the Hunters safe in our mission.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#190 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:23 pm

weather underground on their recon info is now indicating 932 :eek:
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34006
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#191 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:25 pm

Vortex wrote:weather underground on their recon info is now indicating 932 :eek:


The vortex has yet to come in and the lowest pressure extrapolated was 932.7 which rounds to 933mb.
0 likes   

pojo
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 8016
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:16 pm
Location: Houston

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#192 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:30 pm

timeflow wrote:
pojo wrote:that's how we show the public WHAT track we actually take. Its called an Alpha pattern (it looks like a giant X)...



Thanks for your reply pojo. It's very interesting watching this, and even better to get feedback direct from a Hurricane Hunter. This Alpha pattern would seem to be complete once all four quadrants have been penetrated. When this is reached, would it also complete the mission, or does the process continue, x over x, as long as is necessary or as long as fuel and safety permit? I seem to remember back in Wilma the pressure could have progressed even deeper than what was last recorded, but the mission ultimately had to end.

It's watch and learn on this tonight. The SW pass-through later will catch the NE from the other side, which is typcially where the fastest winds should be found. I have not even looked at the 11pm update yet...



They continue the alpha pattern to collect the data as long as NHC needs them out there. Typically, it is for 2 scheduled fixes.... for instance the aircraft out there now is getting the 00z and 06z fix on Dean. On rare occasions (when the storm is approaching US) we will keep the aircraft out for 3 fixes.... they are called 3hourly..... for instance.. Katrina we flew 12z, 15z, and 18z on one aircraft.

CARCAH limits our flying to a maximum of 14 hours because crew safety. That is the MAJOR factor. Safety is our primary concern.

Wilma was different...during crew briefing, NHC noted Wilma as a Cat1... we flew Wilma for the 2 scheduled fixes and received 882mb on the sonde (with SEVERAL missing temps and winds). The crew had to quickly all ATC and request the flight altitude of FL100/700mbs because Wilma was TOO strong to fly at FL050/850mbs.

Typically in Northern Hemisphere storms the NE Quadrant is the Strongest quadrant.... that is where 5302 found 126kts ~145mph and NHC upgraded Dean to Cat4.
Last edited by pojo on Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34006
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#193 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:30 pm

Vortex in - 935mb.

491
URNT12 KNHC 180328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/02:58:10Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
065 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 126 kt
E. 148 deg 007 nm
F. 245 deg 117 kt
G. 141 deg 005 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50Z
0 likes   

pojo
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 8016
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:16 pm
Location: Houston

Re: Re:

#194 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:37 pm

gotoman38 wrote:Thanks - I hope you and all on StCroix are well - and all the Hunters safe in our mission.


Keep your fingers crossed for the plane out right now. St. Croix has had sustained at 35mph all day gusting to 45mph... rain shower on and off.
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#195 Postby gotoman38 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:40 pm

pojo wrote:Wilma was different...during crew briefing, NHC noted Wilma as a Cat1... we flew Wilma for the 2 scheduled fixes and received 882mb on the sonde (with SEVERAL missing temps and winds). The crew had to quickly all ATC and request the flight altitude of FL100/700mbs because Wilma was TOO strong to fly at FL050/850mbs.

Typically in Northern Hemisphere storms the NE Quadrant is the Strongest quadrant.... that is where 5302 found 126kts ~145mph and NHC upgraded Dean to Cat4.

WHOA! Were you on that flight? :notworthy:
0 likes   

User avatar
gotoman38
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1395
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:15 pm
Location: near Durham, NC

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#196 Postby gotoman38 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:45 pm

timeflow wrote:
that's how we show the public WHAT track we actually take. Its called an Alpha pattern (it looks like a giant X)...


Thanks for your reply pojo. It's very interesting watching this, and even better to get feedback direct from a Hurricane Hunter. This Alpha pattern would seem to be complete once all four quadrants have been penetrated. When this is reached, would it also complete the mission, or does the process continue, x over x, as long as is necessary or as long as fuel and safety permit? I seem to remember back in Wilma the pressure could have progressed even deeper than what was last recorded, but the mission ultimately had to end.

It's watch and learn on this tonight. The SW pass-through later will catch the NE from the other side, which is typcially where the fastest winds should be found. I have not even looked at the 11pm update yet...

Here's the pattern:
Image
The RED was the complete pass earlier today - green is the one in progress.
0 likes   

User avatar
timeflow
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 99
Age: 53
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:48 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
Contact:

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#197 Postby timeflow » Fri Aug 17, 2007 11:11 pm

gotoman38 wrote:
pojo wrote:Wilma was different...during crew briefing, NHC noted Wilma as a Cat1... we flew Wilma for the 2 scheduled fixes and received 882mb on the sonde (with SEVERAL missing temps and winds). The crew had to quickly all ATC and request the flight altitude of FL100/700mbs because Wilma was TOO strong to fly at FL050/850mbs.

Typically in Northern Hemisphere storms the NE Quadrant is the Strongest quadrant.... that is where 5302 found 126kts ~145mph and NHC upgraded Dean to Cat4.

WHOA! Were you on that flight? :notworthy:


Wow, that sounds like one legendary flight! One can only imagine the reaction on board as those numbers came back... Out there in the pitch black of night, deep in and above the heart of the Sea, with raging unpredicatable winds, and no safe harbour... right into the 5nm pinhole eye of Wilma. That had to be something else.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#198 Postby senorpepr » Fri Aug 17, 2007 11:31 pm

pojo wrote:
artist wrote:They were to have a new version this year but pojo said not all planes are equiped yet with it. Here is some more info on it senorpepr. And congrats on the growing family!


that is correct.. not all planes are equipped with the SFMR.


Ahh... so that's what SWS = ###KTS stands for... surface wind speeds as indicated by SFMR?
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34006
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#199 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:09 am

The "magic" number for a Cat 5 on the flight-level winds is probably 155 kt.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#200 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:14 am

154 kt FL 928 mb extrapolated...waiting for VDM.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests