CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[srainhoutx]

The current motion definitely opens the possibility of Dean "shooting the slot" between Jamaica and Cuba.

what do you mean Marshall?

Well for one it could mean that the center would stay over water instead of making a 146 mile trek down the length of Jamaica. It would also bring some of the mountains in Cuba into play a little more on the north side of Dean. The worst impact is that it brings it a little closer to the ULL which could impart track further to the north.

Agree. Remember that this is still a fairly compact storm as far as core is concerned.

[Evil Jeremy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EJ’s Forecasts
Major Hurricane Dean
Advisory 12
11:30AMEDT

Official Watches and Warnings:

At 11 am...1500 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. At 11 am...1500 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. At 11 am...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands...U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico has been discontinued.



Dean is one of the most interesting storms I have tracked in a while. The computer models are changing run after run after run, and one morning, they can be completely agreeing on a path and disagree later that day. This is also an interesting storm to track because it’s a race to the Gulf of Mexico in between Dean and a ULL. The ULL is also keeping a ridge at bay, so the faster the ULL moves, the more westward Dean will go but if the ULL slows down, Dean will move more northward.

Major Hurricane Dean spent a lot of time strengthening yesterday and overnight, and Hurricane Hunters have been in the storm this morning, as well as a flight over night. The Gulfstream IV is flying into Dean later tonight. Dean is currently a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 PMH and a pressure of 929. It is possible that Hurricane Dean can become a Category 5 hurricane later today.

The computer models, as mentioned above, are not agreeing completely. What is really interesting to me is that the GFDL and HWRF models, which are basically the same (The HWRF is an experimental replacement to the GFDL) are showing 2 completely different paths. The GFDL could be seeing things that the other models don’t, because Major Hurricane Dean is currently jogging more north than most of the models indicate. The new track is a bland of the models, but gives more weight to the GFDL.

Dean’s movement is also very interesting. As mentioned at the beginning of my forecast, Dean’s movement depends on how fast the ULL near Florida will move out of the way. Dean is currently moving WNW, and this movement will likely continue for a few more days before turning more NW. This unexpected northward movement was also added into my new forecast cone.

Major Hurricane Dean is becoming a massive threat in the Eastern Caribbean. The residents in Jamaica should be currently preparing for a Category 4, possibly 5 hurricane.


Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Hunters are currently flying in Hurricane Dean. Their data will be incorporated into my forecasts today.

The center of Major Hurricane Dean is currently at around 15.7N and 68.6N.

INITIAL 150 MPH
12HR 155 MPH
24HR 160 MPH
48HR 160 MPH
72HR 150 MPH
96HR 110 MPH
120HR 120 MPH

[Thunder44]

Should the winds be raised to 155 mph?

No, in fact, it looks like the winds are coming down. The max FL winds down in the NE quad from 145kts to 139kts. It was even higher than earlier this morning.

[fasterdisaster]

Category 5 should happen tonight after the ERC replaces Dean's fairly ragged core with a shiny, round, new one. Remember ERCs are signs of strengthening in the long run.

[fasterdisaster]

Should the winds be raised to 155 mph?

No, in fact, it looks like the winds are coming down. The max FL winds down in the NE quad from 145kts to 139kts. It was even higher than earlier this morning.

Oops, I misread the winds, sorry haha.

[gtalum]

How much of a monster would this be if it tracks a bit further north shooting the slot between Jamaica and Cuba [and passing to the north of the Yucatan? Can you imagine the hysteria of a strong Cat 5 pointed at Galveston?

[Extremeweatherguy]

36 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif
500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

The current motion definitely opens the possibility of Dean "shooting the slot" between Jamaica and Cuba.

what do you mean Marshall?

Well for one it could mean that the center would stay over water instead of making a 146 mile trek down the length of Jamaica. It would also bring some of the mountains in Cuba into play a little more on the north side of Dean. The worst impact is that it brings it a little closer to the ULL which could impart track further to the north.

I dont think Cuba's mountains will do too much to Dean. In 2005, Dennis passed through the "slot" and managed to jump to 150mph as it made landfall on Cuba. If Dean shoots the slot this could create a much higher chance at a Texas landfall, as a very dangerous hurricane. The storm's likely wnw movement would give it less time over land, at the far western tip of cuba which is much less mountainous, bringing it into the Gulf as at least a cat 3/4. Charley in 2004 passed over the western side of Cuba, only weakening it 5-10mph

[MusicCityMan]

I can see this thing being at least 160-165 when it makes its closest approach if not b4 a landfall in Jamaica..

[jenmrk]

Could you add AL/FL to that last question, it seems that opinions are so mixed at this point of ths northward motion, if it continued more north what would need to happen to push it in our direction of the Panhandle? I hope this is not a stupid question, it is just really hard to understand why there are so many differant opinions, it makes anything seem possible.

I would like to add that if the post that were referrring to ""OMG FLORIDA & PLEAD THE 5th, which just happens to be my screen name, in NO way was I even suggesting,hoping or implying that this storm was coming to Florida, I am just a person that likes to be prepared and I have relied on this board for my infomation for a few years and have a great amount of respect for the opinions on here. I do not know enough to even suggest what may happen, I just would like to be able to ask a question everyonce in a while, I rarely ever post on here, but if I do it is to learn.

[Sabanic]

or anywhere in Texas, LA, MS, AL, or FLA for that matter!!

[cpdaman]

last half hour appear to bend back more west 275 angle i will be eager to see if it moves back to a more west direction for a couple hours or if this was just a jog to the west (with a more 295 heading) to be resumed

[canegrl04]

Dean is going to be a hurricane for the ages,like Gilbert,Camille,Wilma

[Extremeweatherguy]

48 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif
500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

[bayoubebe]

AM; I'm just waking up......................in your "personal" opinion................how far right?

I could see them eventually swinging as far right as the middle or upper Texas coast.

Everybody on here that keeps saying SETX and LA is safe needs to take a STEP BACK and do some remembering back to 2005 to Rita. At one point the models were in decent agreement with a landfall south of the border...and that is where the NHC had it pointed.

And the rest is history...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evig ... 091812.png

Thank you so much for this post.

Too many around here (not the board, maybe, but I'm referring to LA.) were saying we don't need to watch or worry about it anymore.

You'd think by now people would have learned you have to keep watching as those predicted landfalls change so often and so quickly.

[HollynLA]

last half hour appear to bend back more west 275 angle i will be eager to see if it moves back to a more west direction for a couple hours or if this was just a jog to the west (with a more 295 heading) to be resumed

I just looked at the loop, and am not seeing any bending back to the west at all, still looks wnw (maybe with a noth bias) to me. Can you show us what you're seeing.

[tropicsgal05]

Which model does weather wunderground use? I was looking at the site and it shows Dean going to Texas\Louisiana border.

[Sabanic]

AM; I'm just waking up......................in your "personal" opinion................how far right?

I could see them eventually swinging as far right as the middle or upper Texas coast.

Everybody on here that keeps saying SETX and LA is safe needs to take a STEP BACK and do some remembering back to 2005 to Rita. At one point the models were in decent agreement with a landfall south of the border...and that is where the NHC had it pointed.

And the rest is history...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evig ... 091812.png

Thank you so much for this post.

Too many around here (not the board, maybe, but I'm referring to LA.) were saying we don't need to watch or worry about it anymore.

You'd think by now people would have learned you have to keep watching as those predicted landfalls change so often and so quickly.

We ALL need to watch very closely !!

[HURAKAN]

Looking Excellent.

[Sjones]

I am in total confusion. TWC still has this thing going WEST but yet, all of the new models even from the NHC say it is going WNW. However TWC is still calling for a MEXICO landfall, possibly South Texas?!?? I think the mets on TWC are hiding something, and like when Rita came, all of a sudden decide within 24 hours, "Oh this thing has taken a MAJOR NORTH turn, it was headed to MX now it's headed to LA. Arrrgggghhhhh!!!!!