The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.EJ’s Forecasts
Major Hurricane Dean
Advisory 12
11:30AMEDT
Official Watches and Warnings:
At 11 am...1500 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. At 11 am...1500 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. At 11 am...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands...U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico has been discontinued.
Dean is one of the most interesting storms I have tracked in a while. The computer models are changing run after run after run, and one morning, they can be completely agreeing on a path and disagree later that day. This is also an interesting storm to track because it’s a race to the Gulf of Mexico in between Dean and a ULL. The ULL is also keeping a ridge at bay, so the faster the ULL moves, the more westward Dean will go but if the ULL slows down, Dean will move more northward.
Major Hurricane Dean spent a lot of time strengthening yesterday and overnight, and Hurricane Hunters have been in the storm this morning, as well as a flight over night. The Gulfstream IV is flying into Dean later tonight. Dean is currently a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 PMH and a pressure of 929. It is possible that Hurricane Dean can become a Category 5 hurricane later today.
The computer models, as mentioned above, are not agreeing completely. What is really interesting to me is that the GFDL and HWRF models, which are basically the same (The HWRF is an experimental replacement to the GFDL) are showing 2 completely different paths. The GFDL could be seeing things that the other models don’t, because Major Hurricane Dean is currently jogging more north than most of the models indicate. The new track is a bland of the models, but gives more weight to the GFDL.
Dean’s movement is also very interesting. As mentioned at the beginning of my forecast, Dean’s movement depends on how fast the ULL near Florida will move out of the way. Dean is currently moving WNW, and this movement will likely continue for a few more days before turning more NW. This unexpected northward movement was also added into my new forecast cone.
Major Hurricane Dean is becoming a massive threat in the Eastern Caribbean. The residents in Jamaica should be currently preparing for a Category 4, possibly 5 hurricane.
Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.
Hurricane Hunters are currently flying in Hurricane Dean. Their data will be incorporated into my forecasts today.
The center of Major Hurricane Dean is currently at around 15.7N and 68.6N.
INITIAL 150 MPH
12HR 155 MPH
24HR 160 MPH
48HR 160 MPH
72HR 150 MPH
96HR 110 MPH
120HR 120 MPH
