CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Re: Re:

#8081 Postby windnrain » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:36 am

kurtpage wrote:
btangy wrote:Dang, let the bashing of the GFS begin. I'm not sure why people are discounting it immediately. It's important not to let your own bias get in the way, whether you are aware of it or not.

The fact is the resolution of the GFS doesn't allow it to represent the inner core of the tropical cyclone very well. We don't have the computing power to do this. But, it does represent larger scale features important for the steering of the storm well, which is far more important than getting the strength of the storm correct. If it were the opposite, then one wouldn't expect the models (not only the GFS) to do the slightest bit well with the track forecasts despite the gains the models have made with synoptic scale predictions.




Not enough computing power? what is the GFS running on system wise?


Windows 95.
They get the blue screen of death each time Dean Wobbles.
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#8082 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:36 am

A good judge for the GFS will be Jamaica. Currently the 12z run takes it just south of the island. However, if the storm moves north of the island then we will know something is wrong and the models might begin to shift.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8083 Postby sponger » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:36 am

The chance of the 5 day NHC track being accurate is very slim. The center of the cone 5 days out is usually the safest place to be.
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#8084 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:37 am

903
URNT15 KNHC 181635
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 35 20070818
161100 1556N 06858W 6975 02760 9630 +085 +085 109115 116 117 037 01
161130 1555N 06858W 6963 02746 9555 +116 +116 109125 128 109 031 03
161200 1553N 06859W 6944 02698 9473 +124 +124 112121 128 117 018 03
161230 1552N 06900W 6999 02564 9400 +135 +135 111084 093 124 009 03
161300 1550N 06901W 6967 02563 9338 +152 +152 108063 072 104 005 03
161330 1549N 06901W 6971 02533 9302 +164 +138 108043 048 049 007 03
161400 1547N 06902W 6970 02524 9274 +187 +115 105023 031 038 006 00
161430 1545N 06902W 6963 02535 9275 +189 +116 193013 020 031 006 00
161500 1544N 06902W 6963 02545 9296 +176 +125 229033 039 047 006 00
161530 1542N 06902W 6980 02555 9337 +163 +138 240056 058 062 006 00
161600 1541N 06902W 6967 02611 9391 +149 +149 248079 090 070 009 00
161630 1539N 06902W 6975 02659 9460 +138 +138 249094 095 083 005 00
161700 1538N 06902W 6946 02736 9505 +146 +101 252098 099 084 004 00
161730 1538N 06902W 6946 02736 9526 +148 +093 251095 099 083 004 00
161800 1536N 06902W 6964 02791 9589 +146 +083 248087 088 075 004 00
161830 1534N 06902W 6966 02821 9634 +133 +097 252085 085 067 004 00
161900 1533N 06902W 6966 02845 9666 +127 +112 251082 083 064 006 00
161930 1531N 06902W 6961 02872 9709 +108 +108 249076 080 064 008 00
162000 1530N 06902W 6971 02881 9738 +103 +103 245076 077 066 017 00
162030 1528N 06902W 6955 02916 9764 +095 +095 247080 082 999 999 03
$$

One of the missing sets. 128 kt FL and 927mb.
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#8085 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:38 am

Image

Image

EWRC may be occurring but this is looking as good as ever.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8086 Postby x-y-no » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:38 am

fasterdisaster wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:"Horrible bias of the GFS"

GFS + good for s*** .Why is this model taken seriously?


I agree. GFS is utterly idiotic and frankly always has been.


Whatever.

I remind everyone that the GFS called the development of Dean from very early on and so far has been remarkably good on the track in the near to medium term (which is all that one can reasonably expect.) All models have their issues and inconsistencies, but to dismiss one of the premier global dynamical models as "good for s***" is way over the top, IMHO.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8087 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:39 am

canegrl04 wrote:"Horrible bias of the GFS"

GFS + good for s*** .Why is this model taken seriously?

It's performed well with Dean, saw the Caribbean track days ago when everyone else was sold on wrn ATL.

Persistence and trend are keys. In this case both are our friends. Although I was banking on a TX/LA hit before, I am going to shift now to a Mexico track. I overlooked something, and that is the fact that the ridge to the east builds in very quickly after landfall. Dean has a lot of inertia as it will get rather large. If the weakness would remain there, I'd be convinced of a TX hit, but rather, since the weakness closes, timing has to be perfect... which almost never happens.

Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan

...went on to make final landfall in TX?

Storms I think of are Gilbert, Emily, Janet, and Beulah, all of which made final landfall in nrn MX.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8088 Postby marcane_1973 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:39 am

canegrl04 wrote:
marcane_1973 wrote:Just wanted to let you guys know that it has wobbled back due West the last frame. Mannn poor Jamaica :( This could end up being the worst storm to ever hit them in a long long time.


One wobble is not a trend.canes never take a straight line on its path

No doubt but...... The more wobbles that go back West the worst for our friends in jamaica taking a direct hit. It is going to be a watch and see here on out as the stairstepping as they say is really starting to show now.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8089 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:40 am

sponger wrote:The chance of the 5 day NHC track being accurate is very slim. The center of the cone 5 days out is usually the safest place to be.


Also,Jim Cantore is suppose to be reporting live from Mexico in the c0oming days.He is NEVER at the striking point
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#8090 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:40 am

805
URNT12 KNHC 181636
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/16:14:30Z
B. 15 deg 46 min N
069 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2488 m
D. 119 kt
E. 018 deg 8 nm
F. 113 deg 128 kt
G. 018 deg 008 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3050 m
J. 20 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C11
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 21
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 16:12:00 Z
NORTH EYEWALL HAS DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8091 Postby weatherman21 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:41 am

The structure of this Hurricane appears to continue becoming larger. I have two Infrared Satellite screenshots of the cyclone; the first was taken at 6:45Z last night and the second is the latest (16:15Z) image.

Image

Image
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8092 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:41 am

marcane_1973 wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:
marcane_1973 wrote:Just wanted to let you guys know that it has wobbled back due West the last frame. Mannn poor Jamaica :( This could end up being the worst storm to ever hit them in a long long time.


One wobble is not a trend.canes never take a straight line on its path

No doubt but...... The more wobbles that go back West the worst for our friends in jamaica taking a direct hit. It is going to be a watch and see here on out as the stairstepping as they say is really starting to show now.


For their sake,I hope Dean does pass them by to the North.We are in better position to recover from such a hurricane hit than they are
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#8093 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:42 am

I'd say it is holding its intensity right now as it goes through the ERC. Double eyewall reported in the vortex and the old southern wall is gone.
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#8094 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:43 am

Ridges are not smooth along the fringes, it is likely that Dean is stair stepping along the edge of the ridge to the north. We will probably see periods of WNW and then back to W movements.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8095 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:44 am

canegrl04 wrote:For their sake,I hope Dean does pass them by to the North.We are in better position to recover from such a hurricane hit than they are

Much of northern Mex is fairly rural.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8096 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:45 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan

...went on to make final landfall in TX?

Storms I think of are Gilbert, Emily, Janet, and Beulah, all of which made final landfall in nrn MX.

Allen very nearly made landfall on the Yucatan....it very nearly meets all 3 of your thresholds. The GFDL is forecasting Dean to meet all three of your thresholds and go on to make final landfall in Texas.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8097 Postby sponger » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:45 am

Looking absolutely classic! Prayers to all in the path!
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8098 Postby Windtalker2 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:46 am

theworld wrote:latest upper level wind flows...

Image

The area between The Western Tip of Cuba and the Eastern tip of Cuba shows winds from South to North....Could this area tend to pull Dean more Northward when he reaches it?
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis

#8099 Postby Bgator » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:46 am

Looking at PR radar, it seems to be moving due west again at like 270-275. Anyone else see this?
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8100 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:46 am

I might eat my words later but I'm really starting to think this is Mexico storm. I was pretty convinced Texas was going to get it but the models continue to shift south. Looks like the GFS nailed this one as of a couple of days ago.
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