Long-Term Model Runs

[BocaGirl]

There is apparently going to be some sort of storm on September 1. The last eight GFS runs have shown this storm, with some consistency. Here is the GFS string for this storm (Felix, Gabrielle, whatever):

56966548

The key for this is:
(snipped for brevity)
5 - Up Florida way (peninsula) (FLOW)

Wow, I sure hope it doesn't materialize at all, let alone hit 5. (FLOW), especially South FLOW. That's the night of the End of Summer Storm2K Gathering in South Florida. We're planning a really great evening, and a storm just doesn't fit into the plans!

The party starts at 7:00 PM on Saturday, Sept 1 at Brus Room in Pompano Beach. All Storm2k members over 18 and their guests are invited. Watch Storm2k for more details and mark your calendars now!

BocaGirl
Barbara

[cycloneye]

GFS is speaking here,although is 16 days out.Lets watch in the comming days and runs as GFS performed in an excellent way with DEAN.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[cycloneye]

12z 8/21/07 GFS Loop

This run shows interesting things in the long range.Since GFS made that great performance with Dean,I would not take an eye off what GFS is showing in each run,although we know that after 10 days large errors arise.

[Stormcenter]

12z 8/21/07 GFS Loop

This run shows interesting things in the long range.Since GFS made that great performance with Dean,I would not take an eye off what GFS is showing in each run,although we know that after 10 days large errors arise.

I don't see much out there of any consequence considering we are talking prime time right now for development. Who knows maybe Dean will be a bad as it gets in 2007.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z 8/21/07 GFS Loop

This run shows interesting things in the long range.Since GFS made that great performance with Dean,I would not take an eye off what GFS is showing in each run,although we know that after 10 days large errors arise.

I don't see much out there of any consequence considering we are talking prime time right now for development. Who knows maybe Dean will be a bad as it gets in 2007.

Umm..I certainly hope dean is as bad as it gets...

[Meso]

[Meso]

[Meso]

As the runs go on (argh that sounds wrong.) The GFS seems to want to deepen this system more,previous run it weakened it by 384 now it's stronger.

Very far out and not likely to happen,but who knows.. It got Dean.

[Frank2]

Well, the squirrels have been busy around here lately, so, perhaps an early Fall is upon us...

LOL

P.S. Some pretty chilly cool fronts (for August) have been moving southward lately (it was in mid-40's on Saturday morning in the northern midwest), so, perhaps there is something to that...

P.P.S. You can tell it's quiet out there - when something is east of us, I'm usually busy planning my EVAC route (thankfully it worked for Andrew and Wilma, that's for sure)...

[Meso]

[Meso]

Showing a little something sooner than the previous runs

[storms in NC]

About right. Brother's Bday is Sept 6th. Mother nature loves him LOL

Deb

[weatherman21]

After watching the recent model runs of the WRF for the west Atlantic, I quickly found that the WRF failed to stay persistant with a possible cyclone which it was predicting. I continued to observe one after another of the model runs of the WRF and it appeared to rank low in staying consistant. The cyclone that the WRF was predicting never developed. Oh well. However, I am gaining more confidence with the Global GFS and even more so now after the great performance of the GFS with Hurricane Dean. The GFS really did excellent with that hurricane. The GFS also never indicated any such cyclone developing in the west Atlantic as opposed the the WRF model. The GFS turned out correct in that scenerio.

I have also been following the GFS recently and it appears the GFS is beginning to detect an area of low pressure which will track off Africa near the end of the model run. I guess consistancy is what to look for and not so much a single model run. I'll be following the future trends of the model and for now am considering it no more than a possibility.
A few screen captures below show the 12Z GFS forecast for the long-term and the possible area of low pressure tracking off the west African coast:

GFS Forecast for 3Z on 8/30: (next Thursday)


GFS Forecast for 0Z on 9/01:


GFS Long-Range Forecast for 9/06:

[KWT]

Well the 12z pumps out at least 3 closed lows during its run, the first as early as 102hrs which eventually tracks towards the Caribbean on a track similar to Dean (though the extended range section of the GFS loses it due to lack of resultion) then you have another shortly after that (the one weatherman21 post shows) which is stronger and eventually recurves about 360hrs in lalaland of the GFS while another system develops around 288hrs

[crownweather]

12Z ECMWF model shows a tropical cyclone of some sort in the eastern Atlantic forming in 144 hours. It also shows at least a couple of weak lows in the far western Caribbean next week flirting with Panama and Nicaragua. I think we will have multiple areas to watch closely next week. Thoughts welcome on both areas, especially the far western Caribbean as some of the models indicate a westward course into the Pacific while some of the others indicate a more northwest course just inland from Nicaragua to the Yucatan Peninsula.

[Meso]

Busy busy

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 144 hours



Umm,the switch will be up sooner rather than later.

[Emmett_Brown]

18z GFS at 144 hours



Umm,the switch will be up sooner rather than later.

Yes, and the first low shows up late Monday, which is not far off:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_078l.gif

[weatherman21]

The 18Z GFS run is similar to the 12Z run from this morning. The 18Z run is predicting this area of low pressure to track offshore the west African coast at about the same time as the previous model run.
The 18Z run is also predicting the low pressure area to be somewhat stronger as well.

18Z GFS model Forecast for 6Z on 9/01; Wind vectors are at 700MB:


The next image is the forecast for the same time with wind vectors at 850MB:

[Derek Ortt]

there is a system about to emerge and there is little SAL