Tropical Wave Midway Between Africa and Lesser Antilles

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

2:05pm Discussion

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG
18W S OF 22N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...DAKAR UPPER SOUNDING
...HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...AND THE SSMI/AMSRE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 14W-25W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. 850 MB MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IMPLYING A LOW WITHIN THIS AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N EAST OF 22W. A QUIKSCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 2000 UTC ALSO SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
12N22W.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Based on the latest TPC Surface Analysis chart the wave is now accompanied by a 1011mb low...

[punkyg]

Is this the wave?

[CrazyC83]

I think that is the wave. It isn't very well organized right now...

[SouthFloridawx]

95L is that you?

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking a little closer to some sat. imagery, I think the wave behind this one, about to move off the coast tomorrow/tomorrow night... should probably help this one out.

I give it a 40% chance of becoming an invest in the next 2 days...

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/images/out/SDDI-20070829-0600-RGB-09-DUST-00-800.jpg

[RL3AO]

I'll give it 5.4% for becoming an invest in the next 48 hours. Because most of these waves totally fall apart after coming off of land. Dean was an exception.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. BROAD INVERTED-V
CURVATURE WITH A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

[gatorcane]

All,

I'm very surpised we are not talking about this one. It's farther north in lattitude and convection is blowing up nicely this morning. There also seems to be a good spin. Since its farther north in lattitude than 94L it could have implications on the future track (if it holds together a it may track more W to WNW then W or WSW like 94L)

[skysummit]

[x-y-no]

Not bad looking at all. Doesn't seem to be threatened by either fry or or shear, so it could be a player ...

[SWFLA_CANE]

see thread new tropical wave introduced off of coast of africa. This is a tropical wave the NHC introduced yesturday.

[gatorcane]

Yes, and its at a perfect lattitude for development, its almost September, lots of convection....I say its something to watch.

Maybe we can merge this thread with the other one that was started previously on this topic.....it wasn't obvious to me that there was a thread on this by the title of the topic.

[x-y-no]

OK, I merged the topics. Carry on!

[windstorm99]

This is the wave to place close attention in the coming week or so as it already at a dangerous latitude and looks fairly well organized on morning visibles.

[gatorcane]

thanks x-y-no.

This wave is the best looking one at that lattitude this hurricane season.

Let's see if it develops

[windstorm99]

thanks x-y-no.

This wave is the best looking one at that lattitude this hurricane season.

Let's see if it develops

Its at a dangerous latitude gator if you ask me.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd like to see a little more model support for this feature

Will check out at HRD in about 90 minutes whether or not there is any SAL for this system to contend with

[gatorcane]

Based on the steering currents it may go WSW soon though but yes it is starting at an historically dangerous lattitude for long trackers across the subtropical Atlantic....