Long-Term Model Runs

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Meso
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#281 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:18 pm

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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#282 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:19 pm

Umm,EURO joins GFS on developing system SW of Cape Verde islands by that timeframe.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#283 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:32 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I hate to be negative to those who are looking for tropical activity but if we are talking two weeks or so out from today then I wouldn't worry much until they actually materialize. IMO

I think everyone knows this. This is a thread for long-range models... of course people are going to talk about storms in the long-range. And I doubt anyone is actually getting worried.
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#284 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:38 pm

Wow now the Euro is showing development of this same system in 10 days... very interesting.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#285 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:27 pm

144 hours

This is the 18z run of GFS.Starting to show lows in Eastern Atlantic.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs=18z GFS rolling in

#286 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:33 pm

168 hours
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#287 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:37 pm

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216 Hours
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#288 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:44 pm

Sept. is looking very ominous from all indications, SST's, MJO, ENSO and now a giant ridge with model support growing showing an active CV Wave Train coming. Look out East coast!
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#289 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:49 pm

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384 Hours
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Re:

#290 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:03 pm

Meso wrote:Image
384 Hours

Yikes is that heading for Florida(the closest one to the US EC) or a just/well offshore EC storm?
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#291 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:57 pm

JAX, took a peak at 384 500 mb - that sucker would head straight west to FL. Yes, I know it's 384 hrs. It's a fantasy I know. :wink:
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#292 Postby flwxwatcher » Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:11 pm

I Just started following this experimental site again and I will be interested to see if this pans out in the next 2 weeks.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#293 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:53 pm

00z GFS Loop

A weaker run this 00z GFS one.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#294 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:09 am

Grrr....hide and seek hurricanes again.
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#295 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 3:58 am

Image
00z EURO

Image
00z CMC

Image
00z Ukmet


Seems very possible that something will form off the coast soon
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#296 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:33 am



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.8N 20.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.08.2007 11.8N 20.0W WEAK

00UTC 30.08.2007 11.6N 27.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2007 12.3N 27.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2007 13.5N 29.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2007 14.4N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2007 15.3N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2007 16.6N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2007 16.0N 35.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2007 16.0N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2007 15.6N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2007 15.5N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2007 15.5N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE




00z UKMET.MESO,I think that the wave UKMET is showing in the text is the one already near the Cape Verde islands,but I may be wrong on that.The iniciation of the run may be in the wrong position.
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#297 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 11:48 am

Image
A 180 from yesterday's runs.
Dead.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#298 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 29, 2007 11:50 am

Boy, the GFS model has really done an about face from this time yesterday. It's 12Z 8/28 run showed three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Todays 12Z run shows none. What's up with that? :x
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#299 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Aug 29, 2007 11:59 am

ronjon wrote:Boy, the GFS model has really done an about face from this time yesterday. It's 12Z 8/28 run showed three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Todays 12Z run shows none. What's up with that? :x


Thats what 384hrs will do....The model skill in any model that far out is very poor.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#300 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:06 pm

windstorm99 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Boy, the GFS model has really done an about face from this time yesterday. It's 12Z 8/28 run showed three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Todays 12Z run shows none. What's up with that? :x


Thats what 384hrs will do....The model skill in any model that far out is very poor.



WS, I can understand the tracks being wildly different but to drop all three cyclones - that's a huge change in atmospheric conditions. Did someone alter the code overnight? :lol:
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