Long-Term Model Runs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#281 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:18 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145303
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#282 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:19 pm

Umm,EURO joins GFS on developing system SW of Cape Verde islands by that timeframe.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#283 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:32 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I hate to be negative to those who are looking for tropical activity but if we are talking two weeks or so out from today then I wouldn't worry much until they actually materialize. IMO

I think everyone knows this. This is a thread for long-range models... of course people are going to talk about storms in the long-range. And I doubt anyone is actually getting worried.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#284 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:38 pm

Wow now the Euro is showing development of this same system in 10 days... very interesting.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145303
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#285 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:27 pm

144 hours

This is the 18z run of GFS.Starting to show lows in Eastern Atlantic.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145303
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs=18z GFS rolling in

#286 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:33 pm

168 hours
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#287 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:37 pm

Image
216 Hours
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#288 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:44 pm

Sept. is looking very ominous from all indications, SST's, MJO, ENSO and now a giant ridge with model support growing showing an active CV Wave Train coming. Look out East coast!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#289 Postby Meso » Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:49 pm

Image
384 Hours
0 likes   
Top
jaxfladude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1249
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
Location: Jacksonville, Fla

Re:

#290 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:03 pm

Meso wrote:Image
384 Hours

Yikes is that heading for Florida(the closest one to the US EC) or a just/well offshore EC storm?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#291 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:57 pm

JAX, took a peak at 384 500 mb - that sucker would head straight west to FL. Yes, I know it's 384 hrs. It's a fantasy I know. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
flwxwatcher
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 926
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 3:35 pm
Location: Central Florida

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#292 Postby flwxwatcher » Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:11 pm

I Just started following this experimental site again and I will be interested to see if this pans out in the next 2 weeks.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145303
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#293 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:53 pm

00z GFS Loop

A weaker run this 00z GFS one.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hurricanetrack
HurricaneTrack.com
HurricaneTrack.com
Posts: 1781
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact hurricanetrack

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#294 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:09 am

Grrr....hide and seek hurricanes again.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#295 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 3:58 am

Image
00z EURO

Image
00z CMC

Image
00z Ukmet


Seems very possible that something will form off the coast soon
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145303
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#296 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:33 am



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.8N 20.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.08.2007 11.8N 20.0W WEAK

00UTC 30.08.2007 11.6N 27.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2007 12.3N 27.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2007 13.5N 29.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2007 14.4N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2007 15.3N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2007 16.6N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2007 16.0N 35.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2007 16.0N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2007 15.6N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2007 15.5N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2007 15.5N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE




00z UKMET.MESO,I think that the wave UKMET is showing in the text is the one already near the Cape Verde islands,but I may be wrong on that.The iniciation of the run may be in the wrong position.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#297 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 11:48 am

Image
A 180 from yesterday's runs.
Dead.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#298 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 29, 2007 11:50 am

Boy, the GFS model has really done an about face from this time yesterday. It's 12Z 8/28 run showed three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Todays 12Z run shows none. What's up with that? :x
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:
Contact windstorm99

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#299 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Aug 29, 2007 11:59 am

ronjon wrote:Boy, the GFS model has really done an about face from this time yesterday. It's 12Z 8/28 run showed three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Todays 12Z run shows none. What's up with that? :x


Thats what 384hrs will do....The model skill in any model that far out is very poor.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#300 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:06 pm

windstorm99 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Boy, the GFS model has really done an about face from this time yesterday. It's 12Z 8/28 run showed three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Todays 12Z run shows none. What's up with that? :x


Thats what 384hrs will do....The model skill in any model that far out is very poor.



WS, I can understand the tracks being wildly different but to drop all three cyclones - that's a huge change in atmospheric conditions. Did someone alter the code overnight? :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Kingarabian, sasha_B, USTropics and 45 guests