Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Regit]

Clip on 94L from Accuweather:
The third area of concern in the Atlantic is a tropical wave well east of the Lesser Antilles. This system was becoming better organized Thursday afternoon and was creating banded structure to thunderstorms in the area. Through the weekend, an area of high pressure will steer the wave toward the large islands of the Caribbean, which will further hinder the development of the system.

Do they mean PR & Hispanola? The Lesser Antilles shouldn't hinder development to much?

I would surely think they mean the Greater Antilles.

[HURAKAN]

Becoming much better organized during DMIN?!?!?! That's new. Maybe b/c it's almost September.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

Click on the Goes-EAST left Floater and you will see a nice circulation.

[ConvergenceZone]

Long Range Models show High building west as the system moves west north of the system keeping it on a similar track as Dean. We'll see how it all pans out.

It will probably most west similar to Dean until it gets far enough west, and then take a move north once it gets into the gulf. I can't see the high moving west exactly as it did with Dean. That would be too freaky....

[cycloneye]

The 5:30 PM TWO is delayed because they have to type many sentences about various disturbances.

[vbhoutex]

Untill it quits spitting out those outflow boundaries to the NE it isn't going to do too much, just like Derek said. It does look like it is doing its' best to get its' act together in a somewhat "hostile" environment though. Tomorrow could get interesting.

As far as the accuweather quote is concerned, it sounds like they must be talking about Hispaniola, PR, etc. but 94L is going to have to start moving poleward soon if this is to come about. ATM I do not see it happening.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook



Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on August 30, 2007
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Showers activity associated with a tropical wave located about 525
miles east of the Windward Islands has become a little better
organized this afternoon. Upper-level winds are expected to be
favorable for development...and this system has the potential to
become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves
generally westward about 15 mph. Interests in the Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on
Friday...if necessary.

Beven

[Cyclone1]

So according to RL3AO's TWO "State of tropical cyclone formation awareness system" (or Sotrocyfas), we are under code orange I believe?

Yes, I made up that name on the spot.

[RL3AO]

Yellow.

[Brent]

Maybe this will develop and we can get another storm in August.

[Cyclone1]

Yellow.

Ah, yellow. Hmm, looking at it again, Sotrocyfas is a sucky acronym...

[CrazyC83]

Of the three Invests right now, I'd say this one is farthest from being a TD.

[windstorm99]

Even if this developes it does not look like a U.S. threat as of now.Adrian

[Cyclone1]

Of the three Invests right now, I'd say this one is farthest from being a TD.

I agree with you partly, 96L looks closest, but 97L is just a blob of clouds. This may be the only one to ever get classified, though.

[CrazyC83]

Even if this developes it does not look like a U.S. threat as of now.Adrian

I agree; 95L weakened too much to break the ridge and this will be too far west if it redevelops. I think it is going down the road Dean took...

[MetroMike]

Favorable for development today says the TPC for a few waves out there..If they dont, they can just turn it around tomorrow saying conditions appear unfavorable for development wihtout explanation given.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Of the three Invests right now, I'd say this one is farthest from being a TD.

96L is the best because of the LLC and the convection forming right over it. But this does not look to bad overall.

[Buck]

If, say, this and 96L both developed and went on to be named... I would hope this one is first because I'd love to see a storm named "Felix" have a more interesting track than the last three Felixes. Not to say that I don't like fish storm tracks... I do and I like that they cause no harm. It just seems that Felix is always the same storm every 6 years!

[windstorm99]

Fun to watch but in all honesty none of these systems pose a significant threat to the united states as of now.

Visible loop of 94L....

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclone1]

Hehe, very clever, Hurakan.