I can see the need for forecasting by interests that can pay for it, and they do so. But it seems the public needs to know within 24hrs, at least, what to expect. NHC is great, and I disagree with all those who criticize their perfomance, many for their own political or monetary gain.
HOWEVER, all that said. The way it was taught to me, though I can't find it WRITTEN anywhere, is that recon flights are not flown east of 59W. Can anyone corroborate that policy? Pojo?
Since living in the tropics, that seems to be true. And what seems to happen over and over and over again, when a system is organizing, such as today's 94L, it's always right on top of the islands before it is declared. Why 59 degrees? Is there climatological data that proves 59W is a good time to do recon?
Why not extend back to 50W, or even 55W, to give the Eastern Caribbean islands some lead time on classifying storms? Or, why not just wait until systems pass into the Caribbean and are no longer impaired by the islands?
Someone said quickscat missed this today. Can you give a source? Because I looked at QS this morning and it did make a pass over 94L at 9:38UTC, and there were uncontaminated winds over 40kts.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/hires/http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.htmlWhich is why I believe if this is a cyclone, it's a TS. And if so, it will be over the islands by the time it is named, awaiting recon results.