Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#901 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:39 am

cycloneye wrote:I would not rule out that NHC may issue a Special Advisory right after the first recon pass thru low center,if it shows a closed circulation and not wait until 5 PM.


They almost have to. 3-4 hours is a long wait considering how close it is to the islands.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#902 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:40 am

cycloneye wrote:I would not rule out that NHC may issue a Special Advisory right after the first recon pass thru low center,if it shows a closed circulation and not wait until 5 PM.


Because of the proximity to the islands, yes I think they will if they find a TD.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#903 Postby bvigal » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:43 am

I can see the need for forecasting by interests that can pay for it, and they do so. But it seems the public needs to know within 24hrs, at least, what to expect. NHC is great, and I disagree with all those who criticize their perfomance, many for their own political or monetary gain.

HOWEVER, all that said. The way it was taught to me, though I can't find it WRITTEN anywhere, is that recon flights are not flown east of 59W. Can anyone corroborate that policy? Pojo?

Since living in the tropics, that seems to be true. And what seems to happen over and over and over again, when a system is organizing, such as today's 94L, it's always right on top of the islands before it is declared. Why 59 degrees? Is there climatological data that proves 59W is a good time to do recon?

Why not extend back to 50W, or even 55W, to give the Eastern Caribbean islands some lead time on classifying storms? Or, why not just wait until systems pass into the Caribbean and are no longer impaired by the islands?

Someone said quickscat missed this today. Can you give a source? Because I looked at QS this morning and it did make a pass over 94L at 9:38UTC, and there were uncontaminated winds over 40kts. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/hires/
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Which is why I believe if this is a cyclone, it's a TS. And if so, it will be over the islands by the time it is named, awaiting recon results.
Last edited by bvigal on Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#904 Postby Coredesat » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:43 am

I got a reply from Accuweather, it was an automated one that didn't address the issue.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#905 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:44 am

AtlanticWind wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Just watched JB's video Big Dog for Friday. His track on unnamed system/TD6/Felix is pretty much the same as what Wxman57 and Derek are saying. He sees a strong ridge keeping the storm pretty much due west until it hits Central America.



Jb said west? Now I am worried about it turning north :)


I thought the same thing when I read that.
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#906 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:45 am

bvigal wrote:HOWEVER, all that said. The way it was taught to me, though I can't find it WRITTEN anywhere, is that recon flights are not flown east of 59W. Can anyone corroborate that policy? Pojo?


It's 55W.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#907 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:45 am

The 988 mb is probably a sign this was inadverdant. Some tech in the graphics department probably used a prior page and was editing it as info was coming in, and was going to post it when it was official, with an official minimum pressure.


Just my guess.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#908 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:48 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:The 988 mb is probably a sign this was inadverdant. Some tech in the graphics department probably used a prior page and was editing it as info was coming in, and was going to post it when it was official, with an official minimum pressure.


Just my guess.


I work at an oil company as an engineer. When I'm making a wellbore diagram or writing a procedure for a well workover, I'll find a similar wellbore diagram or procedure I've already written it, and edit it as needed for the new job.


It saves a fair amount of time and work.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#909 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:49 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:The 988 mb is probably a sign this was inadverdant. Some tech in the graphics department probably used a prior page and was editing it as info was coming in, and was going to post it when it was official, with an official minimum pressure.


Just my guess.


Maybe so. But what does that say for their quality control procedures?

And it's over an hour later and the bogus info is still up on their site. That's beyond bad.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#910 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:49 am

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#911 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:50 am

But you proof read what you did right? they didn't I would guess.
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#912 Postby Extremecane » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:50 am

outflow looking real good now and startig to see the spin more:

Image
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#913 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:51 am

x-y-no wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:The 988 mb is probably a sign this was inadverdant. Some tech in the graphics department probably used a prior page and was editing it as info was coming in, and was going to post it when it was official, with an official minimum pressure.


Just my guess.


Maybe so. But what does that say for their quality control procedures?

And it's over an hour later and the bogus info is still up on their site. That's beyond bad.


It does suggest a certain shoddiness.

I do suspect it was a non-degreed tech, maybe a summer intern, who did that.

If it was a summer intern from PSU, he probably won't be back next summer.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#914 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:52 am

You can see where recon is in the upper-left hand corner.

Image
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#915 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:52 am

Looking better each frame, i strongly think that RECON will find something, and As for Accuweather, i think this is the first they agree on a track similar to the NHC.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#916 Postby bvigal » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:57 am

x-y-no wrote:
bvigal wrote:HOWEVER, all that said. The way it was taught to me, though I can't find it WRITTEN anywhere, is that recon flights are not flown east of 59W. Can anyone corroborate that policy? Pojo?


It's 55W.
Thanks x-y-no! Unfortunately, today it's more like 58W. On satellite, which has that time lag, it looks to be about 150nm east of Tobago right now.
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#917 Postby Toadstool » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:59 am

storms in NC wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Just watched JB's video Big Dog for Friday. His track on unnamed system/TD6/Felix is pretty much the same as what Wxman57 and Derek are saying. He sees a strong ridge keeping the storm pretty much due west until it hits Central America.



Jb said west? Now I am worried about it turning north :)


I thought the same thing when I read that.
:lol: :lol:


lol, I know what you mean. JB fits right in with faux news channel... kind of funny watching him and Geraldo discussing the tropics... sad sad sad...
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#918 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:15 pm

TS Warnings/watches need to be issued ASAP. Anybody looking at the sat images can quickly tell trouble is brewing and there is not much time before it gets to the islands...
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#919 Postby bvigal » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:20 pm

When was the last position fix, 8am?
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Re: Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#920 Postby gotoman38 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:22 pm

bvigal wrote:When was the last position fix, 8am?


20070831.1615.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.94LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-113N-571W.100pc.jpg


I get NRL's latest as 11.3N 57.1W.
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