Long-Term Model Runs

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Steve
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#301 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:21 pm

>>Look out East coast!

Based on the presentation of those maps, you might have adjusted that to "Look out East coast of Mexico!"

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#302 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:19 pm

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In the not-so-distant future... 126 hour GFS
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#303 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:30 pm

156 hours

Looks more stronger.
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#304 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:37 pm

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Looks like it may be another run like it was showing yesterday
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#305 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:47 pm

No worries out to sea on this run...

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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#306 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:50 pm

:uarrow: A change from the past four runs,where GFS did not showed anything strong.
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#307 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:50 pm

heh,it also showed Dean going to sea and look where that ended up ;)
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#308 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 30, 2007 3:11 am

00z Run
Image
1,2,3
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#309 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 30, 2007 5:28 am

06z Run Still Developing A System Within 7 days
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#310 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 30, 2007 8:44 am

Interesting tidbit of info from this mornings preliminary morning discussion from HPC:

OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THE UPPER LEVEL VELOCITY ANOMALIES OVER GFS/CANADIAN CONT TO INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND LONGER TERM RUN OUT OF THE MODELS GENERATES NUMEROUS SYSTEMS. ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE FAVORABLE VELOCITY ANOMALIES.
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#311 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 30, 2007 10:51 am

Meso wrote:06z Run Still Developing A System Within 7 days
Image



Wow look at all those Highs out there. :eek:
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#312 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Aug 30, 2007 11:54 am

12z Developes something of the african coast but quickly becomes only a worry for the fish...

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#313 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 30, 2007 5:54 pm

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18z GFS

First system it develops is around day 6 or 7
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#314 Postby Meso » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:16 am

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The 12z GFS at 120 hours,it's been really consistent on something forming off the coast in this time period.

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384 hours
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#315 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:51 pm


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 18.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.09.2007 12.2N 18.9W WEAK

00UTC 03.09.2007 13.6N 24.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 03.09.2007 15.2N 25.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2007 16.7N 26.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2007 16.1N 29.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2007 17.9N 13.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2007 17.0N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2007 16.8N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2007 16.9N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

12z UKMET joins GFS.
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#316 Postby Meso » Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:10 pm

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Soon got a feeling this will have its own thread when the wave emerges.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#317 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:43 pm

216 hours

18z GFs run.
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Re: Long-Term Model Runs=18z GFS rolling in

#318 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:45 pm

288 hours

Look at that trio.
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#319 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:45 pm

Phew....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif
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#320 Postby Meso » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:48 pm

Image
WABAM!
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