Long-Term Model Runs

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#301 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:21 pm

>>Look out East coast!

Based on the presentation of those maps, you might have adjusted that to "Look out East coast of Mexico!"

Steve
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#302 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:19 pm

Image
In the not-so-distant future... 126 hour GFS
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145307
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#303 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:30 pm

156 hours

Looks more stronger.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#304 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:37 pm

Image
Looks like it may be another run like it was showing yesterday
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:
Contact windstorm99

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#305 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:47 pm

No worries out to sea on this run...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145307
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#306 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:50 pm

:uarrow: A change from the past four runs,where GFS did not showed anything strong.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#307 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 29, 2007 5:50 pm

heh,it also showed Dean going to sea and look where that ended up ;)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#308 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 30, 2007 3:11 am

00z Run
Image
1,2,3
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#309 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 30, 2007 5:28 am

06z Run Still Developing A System Within 7 days
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#310 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 30, 2007 8:44 am

Interesting tidbit of info from this mornings preliminary morning discussion from HPC:

OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THE UPPER LEVEL VELOCITY ANOMALIES OVER GFS/CANADIAN CONT TO INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND LONGER TERM RUN OUT OF THE MODELS GENERATES NUMEROUS SYSTEMS. ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE FAVORABLE VELOCITY ANOMALIES.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

Re:

#311 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 30, 2007 10:51 am

Meso wrote:06z Run Still Developing A System Within 7 days
Image



Wow look at all those Highs out there. :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:
Contact windstorm99

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#312 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Aug 30, 2007 11:54 am

12z Developes something of the african coast but quickly becomes only a worry for the fish...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#313 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 30, 2007 5:54 pm

Image

18z GFS

First system it develops is around day 6 or 7
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#314 Postby Meso » Fri Aug 31, 2007 11:16 am

Image
The 12z GFS at 120 hours,it's been really consistent on something forming off the coast in this time period.

Image
384 hours
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145307
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#315 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:51 pm


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 18.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.09.2007 12.2N 18.9W WEAK

00UTC 03.09.2007 13.6N 24.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 03.09.2007 15.2N 25.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2007 16.7N 26.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2007 16.1N 29.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2007 17.9N 13.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2007 17.0N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2007 16.8N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2007 16.9N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

12z UKMET joins GFS.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#316 Postby Meso » Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:10 pm

Image

Soon got a feeling this will have its own thread when the wave emerges.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145307
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs

#317 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:43 pm

216 hours

18z GFs run.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145307
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Long-Term Model Runs=18z GFS rolling in

#318 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:45 pm

288 hours

Look at that trio.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#319 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:45 pm

Phew....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

#320 Postby Meso » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:48 pm

Image
WABAM!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BobHarlem, cycloneye, CyclonicFury, KeysRedWine, NotSparta, TomballEd, Ulf and 55 guests