Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Thunder44]

Nogaps is smoking crack... it's the lonely outlier clearing the Yucatan Channel.

The Nogaps has shifted back south, now crossing the Yucatan and into SW Gulf:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

The 0z Ukmet has a similar track, but it's much weaker:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Those models are still further north than the 0z runs GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and CMC, which are consistent with previous runs of track across Central America and Mexico, with the GFDL now fartherest south, keeping the straight west and out of the BOC. Since the GFS and ECMWF are more reliable than the UKMET and NOGAPS, US landfall still looks unlikely at this time.

[HeeBGBz]

So how good are the mm5fsu15b and mm5fsu45a models? They have it skirting just south of Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

About as good as the nogaps. Not to good.

[ronjon]

06Z GFS has shifted north from it's 00Z run - closer to Belize/Mex northern border area. It then hugs the west gulf coast of Mexico and rides north. I think it's looking increasingly likely for a northern Honduras to central Yucatan LF but after that there may be a NW or even N-NW turn as shown by the 00Z HWRF. The trough over the mid-section of the country looks sharper on this mornings model runs. This trough will dig around 120 hrs (after the initial LF). Of course, any slow down of the storm may cause it to turn earlier. As usual, it's all a question of timing.

[cycloneye]

KWBC 021122
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE FELIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.7 67.8 275./15.9
6 13.3 69.6 288./18.3
12 14.0 71.4 291./19.0
18 14.5 73.1 288./17.0
24 15.0 74.8 286./17.5
30 15.7 76.7 290./19.4
36 16.3 78.6 289./19.1
42 16.5 80.3 277./16.4
48 16.9 81.6 285./12.7
54 17.1 83.2 278./15.3
60 17.3 84.5 278./12.7
66 17.4 85.6 279./10.3
72 17.5 86.4 274./ 8.0
78 17.9 87.3 297./ 9.5
84 18.3 88.2 293./ 9.9
90 18.9 89.2 300./10.4
96 19.5 90.3 300./12.6
102 20.3 91.4 306./12.4
108 21.1 92.4 307./12.4
114 21.8 93.4 308./11.7
120 22.3 94.5 294./11.5
126 22.8 95.3 298./ 8.7

6z GFDL a little more north.

[Thunder44]

6z GFDL out to 60hrs on the NCEP site. Looks further north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[ronjon]

Thunder, it's actually quite far north - similar to the 00Z UKMET now. The NHC track is now on the south side of the guidance.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[PhillyWX]

Guys, the thing with these models is that they have been consistently NORTH of where Felix is actually tracking.

Here is the GFDL from 6z this morning (2 AM ET)

0 12.7 67.8 275./15.9
6 13.3 69.6 288./18.3
12 14.0 71.4 291./19.0
18 14.5 73.1 288./17.0

The storm at 8 AM is 13.0/69.3...which is .3 south and .3 east of where the GFDL predicted it. The south trend continues....

[ronjon]

Guys, the thing with these models is that they have been consistently NORTH of where Felix is actually tracking.

Here is the GFDL from 6z this morning (2 AM ET)

0 12.7 67.8 275./15.9
6 13.3 69.6 288./18.3
12 14.0 71.4 291./19.0
18 14.5 73.1 288./17.0

The storm at 8 AM is 13.0/69.3...which is .3 south and .3 east of where the GFDL predicted it. The south trend continues....

Yes Philly good observation but I'm talking about the 4 and 5 day track. I think the next 72 hr track is pretty well cemented.

[ronjon]

This is a change from earlier movement. From NHC 8 AM advisory:

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...

[PhillyWX]

Guys, the thing with these models is that they have been consistently NORTH of where Felix is actually tracking.

Here is the GFDL from 6z this morning (2 AM ET)

0 12.7 67.8 275./15.9
6 13.3 69.6 288./18.3
12 14.0 71.4 291./19.0
18 14.5 73.1 288./17.0

The storm at 8 AM is 13.0/69.3...which is .3 south and .3 east of where the GFDL predicted it. The south trend continues....

Yes Philly good observation but I'm talking about the 4 and 5 day track. I think the next 72 hr track is pretty well cemented.

What it does now though has everything to do with Days 4 and 5. If it hits Honduras head on and only emerges for a few hours over the Caribbean before striking Southern Belize on Wednesday, it will likely be a TS or Low Cat 1 on the second landfall. Honduras has some pretty high mountains and will rip that storm apart and Belize isn't a walk in the park either with 3500 foot mountains in the southern portion of the country. Belize will finish off whatever is left of Felix and whatever circulation that makes it back out into the BOC (IF it makes it that far north) will have to rebuild itself and reorganize itself to a greater extent than what Dean had to do when it crossed over lowland plateau while moving at a 20 mph clip.

Additionally, the less of a northerly track it takes now the more latitude it has to gain to make it past Honduras and then make it to the BOC...additionally, the less north it is the less likely it is to feel effects of ridging weaknesses, which could continue to keep it to the south.

[Meso]

HWRF 06z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ronjon]

Wow, that 06Z HWRF track is wild. Closer to JAM and then a S-SW turn toward Honduras, a stall, and then a slow northward drift along the east coast of the Yucatan.

[crownweather]

Am hoping someone may be able to help....

I'm looking for the link that contains the SHIPS intensity guidance calculations, including forecast wind shear, chance of rapid intensification, etc, etc. I've seen it posted here before, but am looking for an actual link.

Thanks

[cheezyWXguy]

If that initial track of the HWRF verifies, then the gulf REALLY needs to watch it...I doubt it would take that track since its moving barely north of west right now. But after the hWRF has Felix passing Jamaica, it dives south into Belize, then rides north on the eastern Yucatan Coast. On top of that, it weakens Felix all the way to the Yucatan, making landfall at 20.7kts...id probably discard that run

[HollynLA]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Felix is taking a much stronger WNW movement this morning placing him due east of the next forecast point that is set for 2pm today. This may not continue for long or it may be a trend so we'll see. The HWRF may be on to something (except for that weird SW movement into Mexico?

[PhillyWX]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Felix is taking a much stronger WNW movement this morning placing him due east of the next forecast point that is set for 2pm today. This may not continue for long or it may be a trend so we'll see. The HWRF may be on to something (except for that weird SW movement into Mexico?

The HWRF also slows the storm to a crawl. Just not sure that will happen. I wouldn't discount a more northern movement but that model did some weird things to it.

[ronjon]

If the last 6 hrs of track direction hold then Felix will make 15N-75W which is right at the 06Z GFDL location. Both the HWRF and GFDL on their 06Z runs show a more northwesterly component of motion over the next 48 hrs.

[wxman57]

Felix has opened its eye. Could be a Cat 3 very soon.

[wxman57]

If the last 6 hrs of track direction hold then Felix will make 15N-75W which is right at the 06Z GFDL location. Both the HWRF and GFDL on their 06Z runs show a more northwesterly component of motion over the next 48 hrs.

My track has it passing 75W at 14.9N, but the big question is beyond 48 hours. GFDL and HWRF were biased way to the right with Dean, and this pattern is very similar. I'd expect a track farther to the south, closer to the ECMWF's path across the southern BoC. NHC will possibly nudge their track a bit south on the next advisory. I have final landfall near 20.7N/97.2W at 9am Friday, though it could be inland sooner if the speed doesn't drop off as much as predicted -- and farther south.