ronjon wrote:PhillyWX wrote:Guys, the thing with these models is that they have been consistently NORTH of where Felix is actually tracking.
Here is the GFDL from 6z this morning (2 AM ET)
0 12.7 67.8 275./15.9
6 13.3 69.6 288./18.3
12 14.0 71.4 291./19.0
18 14.5 73.1 288./17.0
The storm at 8 AM is 13.0/69.3...which is .3 south and .3 east of where the GFDL predicted it. The south trend continues....
Yes Philly good observation but I'm talking about the 4 and 5 day track. I think the next 72 hr track is pretty well cemented.
What it does now though has everything to do with Days 4 and 5. If it hits Honduras head on and only emerges for a few hours over the Caribbean before striking Southern Belize on Wednesday, it will likely be a TS or Low Cat 1 on the second landfall. Honduras has some pretty high mountains and will rip that storm apart and Belize isn't a walk in the park either with 3500 foot mountains in the southern portion of the country. Belize will finish off whatever is left of Felix and whatever circulation that makes it back out into the BOC (IF it makes it that far north) will have to rebuild itself and reorganize itself to a greater extent than what Dean had to do when it crossed over lowland plateau while moving at a 20 mph clip.
Additionally, the less of a northerly track it takes now the more latitude it has to gain to make it past Honduras and then make it to the BOC...additionally, the less north it is the less likely it is to feel effects of ridging weaknesses, which could continue to keep it to the south.