Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[gatorcane]

from the looks of windstorm's image, felix is right now going north of ALL the models. I agree gatorcane, NW gom really should keep an eye on this, I for one am feeling a bit better for Honduras and Belize right now, and more concerned about the Yucatan part of mexico.

Folks don't get me wrong. I do think a tragedy could be unfolding for those in Honduras/Nicaragua.....and my thoughts and prayers go out to them....although I think the system will end up north of Honduras (hopefully enough for them to miss the bulk of the winds)..

but I don't want those in the NW and N GOM to think this is going to be just like Dean as far as path. I have seen too many complacent comments of this nature. Its unlikely we ever see two back to back paths that are the same.

[ROCK]

Windstorm, that is an awesome site with track overlays. Care to share??

[CrazyC83]

It's a "pick your poison" right now. If it turns, that could spare from having a death toll in the thousands, but puts the Yucatan and the northern Gulf in much greater risk.

[windstorm99]

Windstorm, that is an awesome site with track overlays. Care to share??

Sure its actually the new CIMSS website.It has a way to save animations with quikscat overlaid and tons of other images.

[El Nino]

This thing will be 36h in then zone when Wilma was born. I don't like this.

[HURAKAN]

I will have to talk first to the NBA referee, but I can bet as much as I want that this is at least a cat. 3.

[TampaFl]

Windstorm, that is an awesome site with track overlays. Care to share??

Here you go, just click on the Felix icon & have fun!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

[HURAKAN]

Match made in heaven. Almost twins.

[windstorm99]

Another infrared view of felix...

[Steve]

>>have been saying for several days now a turn to the NW or N at the end of the forecast period seems likely given that persistent ridging is less likely now then in mid August........

It's not fall yet, and the summer patter was late getting here. There is a possible flip to some east coast troughiness based off of what's going on the WPAC. It may be that Felix is too far south or too fast to teleconnect with Fitow. But it's not like strong cold fronts are coming down in droves at this time of year. Yeah, the later you get in the year, the better your chance of troughs. But persistence of ridging depends on the pattern setup and how long the Southeast US is staying in its summer and late summer patterns. IMHO, whatever happens off the US East Coast in the 7 day range is transient or at least relatively short lived.

Steve

[Zardoz]

Here you go, just click on the Felix icon & have fun!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

Thank you!

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... lix-1.html

Updated TV Screengrabs of Felix.

[HouTXmetro]

Was Texas still in the cone of uncertainty for Dean this far out?

[PhillyWX]

Was Texas still in the cone of uncertainty for Dean this far out?

Yes...in fact the GFDL was calling for a Louisiana hit at this point I believe.

[Brent]

Was Texas still in the cone of uncertainty for Dean this far out?

I believe so, the NHC doesn't have the 5-day position inland anywhere(on one Dean projected path they had it approaching Brownsville on Day 5). The average 5-day error is 300 miles, and remember that a couple of models actually did show a TX hit.

Anyway.... Felix looks like a major hurricane right now. I fully expect a Cat 4 by tonight with that satellite appearance.

[HURAKAN]

These images will become very useful as Félix moves WNW.

[Nimbus]

Think we need to talk about model trends instead of single run outputs.

The water vapor imagery is showing a large clockwise rotation over the Caribbean.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

There is a counter clockwise spin over Western Texas. This kind of dynamic environment does not lend itself to linear forecast tracks. Spiral sections and curves do a better job. A track like Edith is not out of the question. I expect the next set of 24 hour locations will be further north.

[Javlin]

Think we need to talk about model trends instead of single run outputs.

The water vapor imagery is showing a large clockwise rotation over the Caribbean.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

There is a counter clockwise spin over Western Texas. This kind of dynamic environment does not lend itself to linear forecast tracks. Spiral sections and curves do a better job. A track like Edith is not out of the question. I expect the next set of 24 hour locations will be further north.

Yea you actually have an ULL over the Keys,over the Bay of Honduras? and as you mentioned over the TX and MX border.The thing I always thought applied is that where ever a low WAS filled in quite quickly with high pressure.That being said and if correct looks like maybe more like the NHC path without a N'ward turn later.

[Cape Verde]

I have no weather expertise other than what I've learned at this forum. But I know enough that Felix will attempt to circle the ridge to its north. How strong that ridge will be and whether it moves will determine Felix's course.

Looking at the current maps, it's wide open between northern Central America, and perhaps as far east as Louisiana. Perhaps somebody can set me straight.

[Sanibel]

Wobble back west. Right on trop points. Expect near miss of Honduras and serious hurricane into Belize.