Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[RL3AO]

THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Scorpion]

48 hours ago.. it was just declared a TD and some were questioning its survival. It will very likely be a Cat 5 by 11 PM. Incredible.

[cheezyWXguy]

The pressure is unbelievably high for the strength...140mph at 956mb...140mph is on average closer to 940 or lower

[HURAKAN]

713
WTNT41 KNHC 022039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED.

FORECASTER PASCH

[El Nino]

Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.

Very good question. I was wondering the same. All in all, you just look at this beast on satellite and how its exploded in a day and a half ... talk about jaw-dropping, shock-n-awe type stuff!

I sure hope the folks in Belize are preparing for a major disaster.

It wasn't a disaster for Dean ... What would change this thing into a disaster ?

[Scorpion]

The pressure is unbelievably high for the strength...140mph at 956mb...140mph is on average closer to 940 or lower

The crazy thing is that I expect it to have around a 915 mb pressure by 11 which would be around 6.6 mb per hour pressure drop

[Portastorm]

Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.

Very good question. I was wondering the same. All in all, you just look at this beast on satellite and how its exploded in a day and a half ... talk about jaw-dropping, shock-n-awe type stuff!

I sure hope the folks in Belize are preparing for a major disaster.

It wasn't a disaster for Dean ... What would change this thing into a disaster ?

I'm not sure I understand. Belize may not have experienced the full brunt of Dean, but certain portions of Quintana Roo of Mexico certainly did and from all Mexican media and personal accounts, there was terrible damage and destruction in some areas. One would expect similar from a storm the strength of Felix ... should it maintain its strength that is.

[jhamps10]

Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.

Very good question. I was wondering the same. All in all, you just look at this beast on satellite and how its exploded in a day and a half ... talk about jaw-dropping, shock-n-awe type stuff!

I sure hope the folks in Belize are preparing for a major disaster.

It wasn't a disaster for Dean ... What would change this thing into a disaster ?

dean also gave Belize at most strong tropical storm force winds, right now the models are centering in on a direct hit for belize with felix.

now that may change of course espically with the more closer to 285-287 degree track over the past 4 hours I've calculated.

[jhamps10]

The pressure is unbelievably high for the strength...140mph at 956mb...140mph is on average closer to 940 or lower

The crazy thing is that I expect it to have around a 915 mb pressure by 11 which would be around 6.6 mb per hour pressure drop

WOW, fyi to ya scorpion, that would be DOUBLE the pressure drop rate of the past 7 hours. but the way this has developed today, it would not be suprising at all to see such a dramatic pressure drop rate.

[O Town]

Felix stadium.

[CrazyC83]

now that may change of course espically with the more closer to 285-287 degree track over the past 4 hours I've calculated.

If it makes landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua (even briefly), it should weaken some on that approach.

[Derek Ortt]

Dean hit a swamp in Mexico north of Chetumal

belize has far higher population

Still... it is incredible how most here do not seem to care or understand what is likely to happen to Honduras... they are focused right on that NHC center line (which may still be slightly to the north initially) into Belize

[HURAKAN]

It's possible the pressure hasn't been able to catch the winds. It should continue to drop.

[Coredesat]

Just adding a little note, as of right now the Weather Underground image is wrong; it indicates Category 5 forecast points, which the NHC is not forecasting (yet). Weather Underground has their SSHS winds wrong; Category 5 is "greater than 135kt", which is "greater than 156mph".

This isn't really all that important impact-wise, but it is very important statistically. If all 135kt storms were Category 5, we'd have some major historical problems.

[CrazyC83]

Only an ERC can keep Felix the Cat from being the "top cat" (i.e. Cat 5)...

[Derek Ortt]

recon is NOT finding a WNW motion... and Wxman has a motion of 280

I know some here desperately want to be in this thing (they have never been in one)... but lets not spread the misinfo regarding this by saying it is moving north of where it really is

[miamicanes177]

The odds of 2 category 5 hurricanes making landfall within 150 miles of each other in the same season has to be about 1 in a million. We just might get the 1 in a million in a few days though.

[Portastorm]

Dean hit a swamp in Mexico north of Chetumal

belize has far higher population

Still... it is incredible how most here do not seem to care or understand what is likely to happen to Honduras... they are focused right on that NHC center line (which may still be slightly to the north initially) into Belize

Derek, I think its more of the latter. I was assuming Felix would skim the northern coastline at worst ... and yes, Honduras would experience the full brunt. Is that northern coastline heavily populated?

[RL3AO]

It's possible the pressure hasn't been able to catch the winds. It should continue to drop.

Um, the winds catch up to pressure.

[CrazyC83]

The odds of 2 category 5 hurricanes making landfall within 150 miles of each other in the same season has to be about 1 in a million. We just might get the 1 in a million in a few days though.

Katrina and Rita almost crossed paths while both were Cat 5...