Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions
Moderator: S2k Moderators
THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. FELIX WILL
REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE
PASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...
THERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 6108
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 5 PM pag 38
The pressure is unbelievably high for the strength...140mph at 956mb...140mph is on average closer to 940 or lower
0 likes
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
713
WTNT41 KNHC 022039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED.
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 022039
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER OR 956 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED.
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
- El Nino
- Category 1
- Posts: 454
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
- Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
- Contact:
Re: Re:
Portastorm wrote:Scorpion wrote:Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.
Very good question. I was wondering the same. All in all, you just look at this beast on satellite and how its exploded in a day and a half ... talk about jaw-dropping, shock-n-awe type stuff!![]()
I sure hope the folks in Belize are preparing for a major disaster.
It wasn't a disaster for Dean ... What would change this thing into a disaster ?
0 likes
Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 5 PM pag 38
cheezyWXguy wrote:The pressure is unbelievably high for the strength...140mph at 956mb...140mph is on average closer to 940 or lower
The crazy thing is that I expect it to have around a 915 mb pressure by 11 which would be around 6.6 mb per hour pressure drop
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Re:
El Nino wrote:Portastorm wrote:Scorpion wrote:Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.
Very good question. I was wondering the same. All in all, you just look at this beast on satellite and how its exploded in a day and a half ... talk about jaw-dropping, shock-n-awe type stuff!![]()
I sure hope the folks in Belize are preparing for a major disaster.
It wasn't a disaster for Dean ... What would change this thing into a disaster ?
I'm not sure I understand. Belize may not have experienced the full brunt of Dean, but certain portions of Quintana Roo of Mexico certainly did and from all Mexican media and personal accounts, there was terrible damage and destruction in some areas. One would expect similar from a storm the strength of Felix ... should it maintain its strength that is.
Last edited by Portastorm on Sun Sep 02, 2007 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: Re:
El Nino wrote:Portastorm wrote:Scorpion wrote:Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.
Very good question. I was wondering the same. All in all, you just look at this beast on satellite and how its exploded in a day and a half ... talk about jaw-dropping, shock-n-awe type stuff!![]()
I sure hope the folks in Belize are preparing for a major disaster.
It wasn't a disaster for Dean ... What would change this thing into a disaster ?
dean also gave Belize at most strong tropical storm force winds, right now the models are centering in on a direct hit for belize with felix.
now that may change of course espically with the more closer to 285-287 degree track over the past 4 hours I've calculated.
0 likes
Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 5 PM pag 38
Scorpion wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:The pressure is unbelievably high for the strength...140mph at 956mb...140mph is on average closer to 940 or lower
The crazy thing is that I expect it to have around a 915 mb pressure by 11 which would be around 6.6 mb per hour pressure drop
WOW, fyi to ya scorpion, that would be DOUBLE the pressure drop rate of the past 7 hours. but the way this has developed today, it would not be suprising at all to see such a dramatic pressure drop rate.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Re:
jhamps10 wrote:now that may change of course espically with the more closer to 285-287 degree track over the past 4 hours I've calculated.
If it makes landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua (even briefly), it should weaken some on that approach.
0 likes
Dean hit a swamp in Mexico north of Chetumal
belize has far higher population
Still... it is incredible how most here do not seem to care or understand what is likely to happen to Honduras... they are focused right on that NHC center line (which may still be slightly to the north initially) into Belize
belize has far higher population
Still... it is incredible how most here do not seem to care or understand what is likely to happen to Honduras... they are focused right on that NHC center line (which may still be slightly to the north initially) into Belize
0 likes
Just adding a little note, as of right now the Weather Underground image is wrong; it indicates Category 5 forecast points, which the NHC is not forecasting (yet). Weather Underground has their SSHS winds wrong; Category 5 is "greater than 135kt", which is "greater than 156mph".
This isn't really all that important impact-wise, but it is very important statistically. If all 135kt storms were Category 5, we'd have some major historical problems.
This isn't really all that important impact-wise, but it is very important statistically. If all 135kt storms were Category 5, we'd have some major historical problems.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:Dean hit a swamp in Mexico north of Chetumal
belize has far higher population
Still... it is incredible how most here do not seem to care or understand what is likely to happen to Honduras... they are focused right on that NHC center line (which may still be slightly to the north initially) into Belize
Derek, I think its more of the latter. I was assuming Felix would skim the northern coastline at worst ... and yes, Honduras would experience the full brunt. Is that northern coastline heavily populated?
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
miamicanes177 wrote:The odds of 2 category 5 hurricanes making landfall within 150 miles of each other in the same season has to be about 1 in a million. We just might get the 1 in a million in a few days though.
Katrina and Rita almost crossed paths while both were Cat 5...
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest